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Friday, April 29, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 April 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 85 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  in Sabaragamuwa,  Western, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western & Central provinces during 29th  April - 3rd May.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.1 mm and hydro catchment areas have received  up to 6.3 mm on average.
 • From 18th - 24th April, up to 1 - 4 m/s South-westerlies & variable winds were experienced over the Island.
 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of SL. land temperatures remain around Normal, unlike the sweltering heat in Indian sub-continent.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 27th – 3rd May
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Western
  • 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - Southern, Northern, North Central
  • 55 mm - North Western, Central
  • 45 mm - Uva
  • 35 mm - Eastern
From 4th – 10th May
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 135 mm - Western
  • 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - Southern
  • 105 mm - Central
  •  95 mm - North Western, Uva, Northern, North Central
  •  65 mm - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29th April - 6th May and moderately enhance during 7th – 11th May.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: April 20, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 
Galle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (19th - 26th April) = 4.1 mm
Rmax: 63.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

2.5 mm

Eastern

0.8 mm

Western

8.2 mm

Southern Plains

5.8 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 59 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
South-westerly (and variable in direction) winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (29th April- 3rd May) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western and Central provinces. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces and above normal in the northern province during 29th April - 6th May
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29th April - 6th May and moderately enhance during 7th – 11th May. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

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