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Friday, June 25, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted in Western province during 24th - 30th June. Also, from the 1st- 7th July for the same regions.
  •  Showers were experienced in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with a max of 58 mm in Ratnapura on 23rd June.
  From 16th- 22nd June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 10 – 25 mm - Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badullla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
  • 2 – 5 mm - Moneragala, Hambantota 

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Moneragala, Kandy
  • 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


1st – 10th June:
  • 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
  • 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
  • 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
  • 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
  • 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

11th – 20th June:
  • 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
  • 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24th – 30th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 75 mm   - Southern, Northwestern
  • 65 mm   - Central
  • 35 mm   - Uva, North Central
  • 25 mm   - Eastern
From 1st – 7th July: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 105 mm - Northwestern
  • 85mm    - Central, Southern
  • 45 mm   - Uva, North Central
  • 25 mm   - Northern
  • 15 mm   - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 23rd- 27th Jun; slightly enhance during 28th Jun – 2nd Jul and significantly enhance during 3rd – 7th Jul. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 16, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State
Sea surface temperature was observed neutral in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Friday, June 18, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted in Sabaragamuwa province during 1st week. And extremely heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for Western &  Sabaragamuwa regions.
  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Central & Western provinces with a max of 144 mm in Ratnapura on 13th June.
  From 9nth- 15th June: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island.
  0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 25 – 50 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Matale, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 10 – 25 mm - Hambantota, Kurunegala, Martara, Ampara, Batticaloa, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 31st May:
  • 12 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  • 10 mm - Puttalm, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
  • 6 mm - Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
  • 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1st – 10th June:
  • 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
  • 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
  • 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
  • 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
  • 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17th – 23rd June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 95 mm  - Western
  • 85 mm  - Northwestern
  • 65 mm  - Central, Southern
  • 25 mm  - Uva 
  • 15 mm  - North Central
From 24th – 30th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - Northwestern
  • 95 mm  - Southern
  • 85 mm  - Central
  • 45 mm  - Uva
  • 25 mm  - North Central
  • 15 mm  - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 16th- 30th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 9, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State
0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Friday, June 11, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 June 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Heavy rainfall is predicted for North-Western province during 1st week period. And dangerously heavy rainfall in the 2nd week for the same region.
  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Northwestern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces with a max of 346 mm in Dummalasooriy on 3rd June.
  From 2nd - 8th June: up to 10 km/h from the West and South were experienced.
  SST was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of SL and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.




Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
  • 100 – 150 mm - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura
  • 75 – 100 mm   - Nuwara Eliya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Badulla 
  • 50 – 75 mm     - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Moneragala, Matara, Hambantota
  • 25 – 50 mm     - Batticaloa

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
  • 50 – 100 mm   - Kandy, Galle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, 
  • 25 – 50 mm     - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Moneragala, Matara


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


11th – 20th May:
  • 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara
  •  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
  •  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
  •  4 mm  - Mannar

21st – 31st May:
  • 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
  •  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
  •  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10th – 16th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 85 mm   - North western, Central
  • 55 mm   - Southern
  • 25 mm   - Uva
From 10th – 16th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - North western
  • 105 mm - Southern, Central
  • 55 mm   - Uva
  • 25 mm   - North Central, Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 11th– 18th June and neutral during 19th–23rd June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north. The Indian Ocean is showing an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole pattern.

Friday, June 4, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 June 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  •   Extremely heavy rainfall of 145 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 3rd – 9th June.  
  •   Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces with a max of  327 mm in Kalutara on 3rd June.
  From 19th  - 25th May: up to 15 km/h from the West and South were experienced. 
  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar
  • 5 – 10 mm - Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy
  • 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


11th – 20th May:
  • 14 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo 
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara
  •  8 mm  - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota 
  •  6 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale
  •  4 mm  - Mannar

11th – 20th May:
  • 12 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura,  
  • 10 mm - Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, 
  •  6 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matale, Jaffna, Kilinochchi 
  •  4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Batticaloa

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3rd – 9th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 145 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 115 mm - Southern, North western
  • 105 mm - Central
  •  75 mm  - Uva
  •  65 mm  - North central
  •  55 mm  - Eastern
  •  45 mm  - Northern
From 10th – 16th June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 105 mm - North Western
  •  95 mm  - Southern
  •  55 mm  - Central, Uva
  •  35 mm  - North Central, Eastern
  •  25 mm  - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 4th–11th June and neutral during 12th– 16th June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: May 26, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late May and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.