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Friday, April 30, 2021

Climate Bulletin Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Southern during 30th Apr - 4th May and 95 mm expected in Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces during 5th11th May
  •   Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 160 mm in Ratnapura on 22ndApr.
•   From 20th - 26th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeastly winds were experienced by Northern half of the island.
•   Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
  • 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 75 – 100 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gamapaha, Galle, Matara
  • 50 – 75 mm - Hambantota
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Batticaloa

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Badulla, Moneragala
  • 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo
  • 10 – 25 mm - Gampaha, Matara

Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Tricomalee, Ampara, Matale, Hambantota
  • 10 – 25 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


1st – 10th April:

  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11th – 20th April:
  • 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
  • 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
  • 8 mm - Mannar
  • 6 mm - Kilinochchi
  • 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 30th April– 4th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 75 mm - Western, Southern
  • 65 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Uva
  • 45 mm - Eastern, North Central, North Western
  • 35 mm - Northern
From 5th – 11th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 95 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 75 mm - Central, Uva
  • 65 mm - North Western
  • 55 mm - North Central, Eastern
  • 45 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 30th April – 1st May, slightly enhanced during 2nd–11th May

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: April 21, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in late April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed above average in Northern and neutral around along Sri Lanka.

Friday, April 23, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 55 mm expected in Central, Western,Sabaragamuwa, Uva provinces during 28th Apr- 04th May with a drop in rainfall elsewhere
  •  Thunder shower with lightning was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with a maximum of 132.5 mm in Kegalle on 14th Apr.
•  From 13th  - 19th Apr: up to 4 km/h Southwestly winds were experienced by Southern half of the island.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ratnapura
  • 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 50 – 75 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


1st – 10th April:

  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha

11th – 20th April:
  • 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
  • 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
  • 8 mm - Mannar
  • 6 mm - Kilinochchi
  • 4 mm - Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23rd – 27th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 45 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 35 mm - Uva
  • 25 mm - North Central, Eastern, Southern, North Western
  • 15 mm - Northern
From 28th April – 4th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 55 mm - Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
  • 45 mm - Southern
  • 35 mm - North Central, North Western, Eastern
  • 25 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 23rd– 24th April, slightly suppressed during 25th–29th April and slightly enhanced during 30th April - 4th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: April 14, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid- April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued LaNiña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5°C above average in Southern, Eastern and Western parts of around Sri Lanka.

Friday, April 16, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Showers of 75 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere.
  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 135mm max in Matara on 10th April.  
•  From 6th - 12th Apr: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 150 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura
  • 100 – 150 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala
  •  75 – 100 mm - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matara
  •   50 – 75 mm  - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matale, Galle, Hambantota
  •  25 – 50 mm  - Trincomalee, Kilinochchi
  •  10 – 25 mm  - Jaffna


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  •  50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala, Kegalle
  •   25 – 50 mm  - Mullaitivu, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  •   10 – 25 mm  - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Kandy


Rainfall Deficit
  •  50 – 100 mm - Galle
  •   25 – 50 mm - Batticaloa, Matale, Matara, Hambantota
  •   10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Trincomalee

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 31st March:

  • 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Badulla
  • 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
  • 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1st – 10th April:
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Moneragala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara 
  • 4 mm - Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Gampaha   

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16th – 20th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - North Western, Southern
  • 55 mm - Central, Uva
  • 45 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern, North Central
From 21st – 27th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Southern
  • 25 mm - North Western, Central, Uva
  • 15 mm - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 13th – 17th Apr, slightly suppress during 18th– 22nd Apr and slightly enhance during 23rd – 27th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: April 7, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early-April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed neutral around along Sri Lanka.

Friday, April 9, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 45 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 15th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere
  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern province with a maximum of  74 mm in Galle on 6th Apr.
•  From 30th Mar - 05th Apr: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.
•    Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Galle
  • 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura
  • 5 – 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Moneragala, Badulla
  • 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 – 25 mm - Anuadhapura


Rainfall Deficit
  • 50 – 100 mm - Ratnapura
  • 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11th – 20th March:
  • 10 mm - Kalutara
  • 8 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo, Galle
  • 6 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale

21st – 31st March:

  • 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Badulla
  • 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
  • 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8th – 14th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 25 mm - Central
  • 15 mm - Northern, North Central, North western, Eastern, Southern, Uva
From 15th – 21st April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Central, Uva, Southern
  • 25 mm - Eastern
  • 15 mm - North western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
         MJO shall significantly suppressed the rainfall during 7th – 16th Apr and slightly suppressed during 17th– 21st Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: March 31, 2021 
          Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the middle west Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
        Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.