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Friday, February 26, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 February 2021)

 

Highlights                             

  Showers of 35 mm expected in Eastern province during 1st 7th March. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.
  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern and; Eastern provinces. Up to 81 mm max in Batticaloa on 18thFeb.
  From 16th - 22nd Feb: up to 5 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.
  Sea surface temperature was observed near- neutral all along around Sri Lanka.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 25 – 50 mm - Badulla, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura,  Kalutara, Matara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Moneragala, Vavuniya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Hambantota
  • 2 – 5 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Matale, Puttalam
There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar
  • 10 – 25 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 10 – 25 mm Polonnaruwa, Matale
There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1st – 10th February:
  • 8 mm - Ampara, Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota
  • 6 mm - Ratnapura, Matara, Moneragala
  • 4 mm - Batticaloa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mannar Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo

11th – 20th February:

  • 4 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 27th – 28th February:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  25 mm - Eastern
  
From 1st – 7th March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  35 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 27th Feb – 4th Mar and Neutral during 5th – 9th  March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: February 17, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Friday, February 19, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 February 2021)

 

  Highlights                             

  Showers of 45 mm  expected in Eastern province during 17th - 23rd Feb. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.
  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 104 mm max in Matara on 14th Feb.
  From 9th- 15th Feb: up to 4 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed near- neutral all along around Sri Lanka.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kegalle, Galle, Hambantota, Kandy
  • 5 – 10 mm - Kalutara, Matale
  • 2 – 5 mm - Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Ampara, Batticaloa
There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.



Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 10 – 25 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa
  • 10 – 25 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy
There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21st – 31st January:
  • 12 mm - Ampara
  • 10 mm - Batticaloa
  • 6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
  • 4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

1st – 10th February:

  • 12 mm - Ampara, Hambantota
  • 10 mm - Kalutara, Galle
  • 6 mm - Ratnapura, Matara, Moneragala
  • 4 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam,Kurunegala, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Trincomalee

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 17th – 23rd February:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  45 mm - Eastern
  
From 24th  February – 2nd March:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  25 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 16th – 25th Feb slightly suppress during 26th Feb –2nd March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: February 10, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in Early-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Friday, February 12, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 February 2021)

     

                        Highlights                             

  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern province during 10th -16th Feb. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.
  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern and Southern provinces. Up to 87mm max in Kalutara on 8th Feb.
  From 2nd- 8th Feb: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.50C to the South of Sri Lanka and neutral to the North.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 100 – 150 mm - Hambantota, Ampara
  • 75 – 100 mm  - Moneragala
  • 50 – 75 mm   -  Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura
  • 25 – 50 mm  -  Badulla, Batticaloa
  • 10 – 25 mm  -  Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Kandy
  • 5 – 10 mm   -  Trincomalee, Gampaha
  • 2 – 5 mm    - Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala
Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Ampara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Matara, Ratnapura
  • 10 – 25 mm - Badulla
Rainfall Deficit
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Kurunegala
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11th – 20th January:
  • 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  • 16 mm - Vavuniya
  • 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
  • 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

21st – 31st January:

  • 12 mm - Ampara
  • 10 mm - Batticaloa
  •   6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
  •  4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee 
  •  2 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 10th – 16thFebruary:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  55 mm  - Eastern
  25 mm  - Northern
  
From 17th – 23rd  February:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  75 mm -  Eastern
  45 mm -  Northern
  25 mm -  North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 9th – 13th Feb slightly suppressed during 14th – 23rd Feb.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: February 3, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in Early-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.50C to the South of Sri Lanka and neutral to the North.

Friday, February 5, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (5 February 2021)

    

                        Highlights                             

 Heavy rainfall of 95 mm expected in Eastern province during 4th - 10th Feb. The drop in rainfall over the rest of the country. 
  •  Dangerously Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern & Sabaragamuwa provinces.Up to 218mm max in Batticaloa on 28th Jan.
  From 27th  Jan- 2nd Fab: up to 8 km/h Easterly to Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 100 – 150 mm - Batticaloa, Ampara
  •  75  – 100 mm - Moneragala
  •  50  –  75 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Trincomalee, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Colombo, Galle
  •  25  –  50 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala
  • 10  –  25 mm  - Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu
  •   2  –  5 mm   - Kilinochchi, Jaffna
Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm  - Ampara
  • 50  –  100 mm  - Batticaloa, Moneragala
  • 50  –  100 mm  - Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Kandy, Ratnapura
  • 50  –  100 mm  - Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Kegalle, Gampaha
Rainfall Deficit
  • 10 – 25 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna 

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11th – 20th January:
  • 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
  • 16 mm - Vavuniya
  • 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
  • 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

21st – 31st January:

  • 12 mm - Ampara
  • 10 mm - Batticaloa
  •   6 mm - Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura
  •  4 mm - Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee 
  •  2 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna

 Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 4th – 10thFebruary:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  95 mm - Eastern
  35 mm - Northern, Southern 
  25 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Uva
  15 mm - Western, Central,North-central
  
From 11th – 17thFebruary:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
105 mm - Eastern
 55 mm  - Northern
 45 mm  - North-central
 35 mm  - Southern, SabaragamuwaUva
 25 mm  - North-western, Western, Central

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 3rd – 17th Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: January 27, 2021 
Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.