Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 January 2021)

   

                        Highlights                             

•  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Batticaloa district during 27th Jan - 3rd Feb. The drop in rainfall over the rest of the country. 

  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Western & Southern provinces during 21th- 27th.Up to 91 mm Highest rainfall in Kalutara on 21st Jan.

•  From 20th  - 26th Jan: up to 6 km/h Easterly to Northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 5 – 10 mm - Batticaloa
• 2 –  5 mm  - Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

11^th – 20^th January:

• 18 mm - Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Ratnapura
• 16 mm - Vavuniya
• 14 mm - Batticaloa, Mullaitivu, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Moneragala
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Jaffna, Trincomalee
• 10 mm  - Puttalam, Gampaha, Kandy, Matale, Anuradhapura

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28^th – 3^rd January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

135 mm - Eastern

  75 mm - Northern

  65 mm - North-central

  45 mm - Western, Uva, Central, Southern 

  35 mm - North-western, Sabaragamuwa

From 4^th – 10^thFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

125 mm - Eastern

 65 mm  - Northern

 55 mm  - North-central, Uva

 45 mm  - Central, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa

 25 mm  - North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall from 19^th Jan– 2^nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 20, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 January 2021)

  

                        Highlights                             

•  Heavy rainfall of 135 mm expected in Eastern province during 20th – 26th Jan & dangerously heavy rainfall expected in Batticaloa during 27th Jan - 2nd Feb. 

  •  Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Western, Eastern & Southern provinces.Up to 135 mm max in Ratnapura on 16th  Jan.

•  From 12th  - 18th Jan: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced  by the entire island

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle
• 150 – 200 mm - Matara
• 100 – 150 mm - Kegalle, Kurunegala, Hambantota
• 75 – 100 mm - Colombo, Batticaloa
• 50 – 75 mm - Gampaha, Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa
• 25 – 50 mm - Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm - Kalutara
• 100 – 200 mm - Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle
•  50 – 100 mm  - Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Gampaha, Ampara, Batticaloa, Puttalam
•   25 – 50 mm  - Matale, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannra, Mullaitivu
•   10 – 25 mm -  Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm -Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee
• 12 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
•  8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th – 26^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

135 mm - Eastern

  55 mm - Northern

  35 mm - North-central

  15 mm - Western, Uva, Central

From 27^th January – 2^ndFebruary:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

105 mm - Northern

 95 mm  - North-central, Uva

 75 mm  - Central

 65 mm  - Western

 55 mm  - Sabaragamuwa, North-western, Southern

 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 19^th Jan– 2^nd Feb. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 13, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-January and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 January 2021)

 

                        Highlights                             

•  Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected  in Eastern province during 14th – 20th Jan.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern & Eastern provinces. Up to 154 mm max rainfall in Mullaitivu district on 11th Jan.

•  From 5th  - 11th Jan: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the northern half of the island.

•  0.5 0Cabove average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Vavuniya
• 100 - 150 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kandy, Matale, Batticaloa, Badulla

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya 
• 50 – 100 mm   - Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Moneragala Batticaloa, Kegalle, Ampara, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, PuttalamAnuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm -Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Ampara, Matale
• 12 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
•  8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

1^st – 10^th January:

• 16 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Matale, Trincomalee, Kandy, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Badulla, Moneragala, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha
• 14 mm - Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Puttalam, Mullaitivu
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 mm - Matara, Kilinochchi 
•  8 mm  - Jaffna

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 14^th – 20^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

140 mm - Eastern

105 mm - Uva

 85 mm  - Central

 75 mm  - Northern, North-central

 55 mm  - Western, North-western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa

From 21^st – 27^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

 75 mm  - Northern

 45 mm  - North-central

 35 mm  - Western, Central

 25 mm  - Uva, Sabaragamuwa

 15 mm  - Southern, North-western

 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 13^th – 27^th January. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 6, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in early-January, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 January 2021)

                        Highlights                             

•   Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected in Northern and Eastern provinces during 6th – 12th Jan.

  •   Heavy rainfall  was experienced in Eastern & Western provinces. Up to 142 mm max rainfall in Batticaloa on 4th Jan.

•  From 29th Dec - 4th Jan: up to 8 km/h Easterly winds were experienced  by the entire island.

•  0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Ampara, Moneragala
• 100 - 150 mm - Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo
• 75 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Puttalam, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 50 - 75 mm    - Galle, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Ampara, Moneragala 
• 50 – 100 mm   - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Badulla, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 - 50 mm     - Galle, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm    - Jaffna, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

During December; Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th December:

• 16 mm-Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kegalle, Jaffna
• 14 mm- Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Moneragala
• 12 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kurunegala
• 10 mm  - Kilinichchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo
• 6 mm  - Puttalam, Hambantota

21^st – 31^st December:

• 16 mm-Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Gampaha
• 14 mm- Ampara, Matale
• 12 mm- Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Badulla
• 10 mm  - Vavuniya, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara 
• 8 mm  - Kegalle, Hambantota, Moneragala, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Mullaitivu 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th – 12^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

140 mm - Northern, Eastern

115 mm - North-central

105 mm - Central

 85 mm  - Uva, Western

 75 mm  - North-western, Sabaragamuwa

 55 mm  - Southern

From 13^th – 19^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Eastern

115 mm - Northern

105 mm - Uva

 75 mm  - North-central

 65 mm  - Central

 55 mm  - Western

 45 mm  - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 5^th – 14^th Jan and have neutral influence during 15^th – 19^th Jan.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 30, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-December and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 January 2021)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   Dangerously heavy rainfall of 140 mm expected  in Northern, North-central and Eastern provinces during 6th – 12th Jan.

  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, & Western provinces. Up to 220 mm max rainfall in Matara on 28th Dec.

•  From 22nd - 28th Dec: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced on the East side of the island.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5 0C to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 150 – 200 mm - Colombo
• 100 - 150 mm - Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 75 – 100 mm - Matara, Hambantota
• 50 - 75 mm    - Kegalle, Matale, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
• 25 – 50 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Ampara, Mannar, Kilinochchi, Badulla
• 10 – 25 mm - Kandy, Jaffna, Moneragala 

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Colombo
• 50 – 100 mm   - Gampaha, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 - 50 mm     - Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kegalle
• 10 – 25 mm    - Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Moneragala, Badulla, Jaffna
• 10 – 25 mm - Kandy, Kilinochchi 

Monthly Monitoring: 

In the first 10 days in December 2020, there was heavy rainfall was observed in Northern and Western provinces, probably due to cyclone storm “BUREVI”

During December; Dekadal Rainfall by Districts: 

• 18 mm-Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
• 16 mm- Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam
• 10 mm- Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Badulla, Moneragala
• 8 mm  - Ratnapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Ampara
• 5 mm  - Galle, Matara, Hambantota 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 30^th December – 5^thJanuary:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

140 mm - Northern, Eastern

105 mm - North-central

95 mm  - Uva

85 mm  - Central

55 mm  - North-western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa

45 mm  - Western

From 6^th – 12^th January:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

140 mm - Northern, North-central, Eastern

115 mm - Central, Uva

105 mm -  North-western

95 mm   - Western, Sabaragamuwa

85 mm   - Southern 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29^th Dec  –  2^nd Jan, have neutral influence  during 3^rd – 7^th Jan and significantly suppress the rainfall during 8^th  – 12^th Jan.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 23, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-December, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions

Indian Ocean State

The SST in the Indian Ocean is still warmer by 0.5 degrees than is seasonable to the West of Sri Lanka but near seasonable on the Eastern.