Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 30 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the entire island during 29 Jan - 3 Feb.

•          Between 21 - 27 Jan: up to 160 mm of rainfall was recorded in Matale district on the 21^st

•          From 21- 27 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•          0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
21st January	Up to 160 mm in Matale district; up to 120 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 20 mm in Badulla and Hambantota districts.
22nd  January	Up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara and Hambantota districts.
23rd January	Up to 10 mm in Badulla, Matale and Kandy districts.
24th January	No Rainfall.
25th January	No Rainfall.
26th January	No Rainfall.
27th January	No Rainfall.
28th January	Up to 10 mm in Puttalam district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, and Mannar districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 29^th Jan – 4^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo Gampaha, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
From 5^th – 11^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 29^th Jan 3^rd Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in the entire island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an Impact in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 23 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 22- 27 Jan.

•          Between 15 - 20 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in southwestern regions of the island on the 19^th and 20^th

•          From 14- 20 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•          1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
15th January	No Rainfall.
16th   January	No Rainfall.
17th January	Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in Kegalle and Matara districts.
18th January	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Kalutara districts.
19th January	Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Matara, and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts.
20th January	Up to 50 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Ampara district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; up to 50-75 mm in Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Hambantota, Matale and Ampara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Galle, Matara, Matara, and Ampara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee district; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 22^nd – 28^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
From 29^th Jan – 4^th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 22^nd – 27^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 21, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 16 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•         The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in western, central and eastern regions during 15- 20 Jan.

•         Between 7 - 14 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Ratnapura districts on the 7^th.

•         From 7- 13 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•        1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
7th   January	Up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Ratnapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Kalutara districts.
8th   January	No Rainfall.
9th   January	No Rainfall.
10th January	No Rainfall.
11th January	Up to 10 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
12th January	Up to 10 mm in the Ratnapura district.
13th January	No Rainfall.
14th  January	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Ratnapura and Galle districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in most parts of the island

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 15^th – 21^st Jan: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 35-45 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
From 22^nd – 28^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Colombo district.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 15^th – 20^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: January 19, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 9 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara districts during 8- 13 Jan.
• Between 31 Dec 5 Jan: up to 100 mm of rainfall were recorded in Gamapa and Colombo districts on the 2^nd.
• From 31 Dec - 6 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
31st December	Up to 30 mm in Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Ratnapura district.
1st   January	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
2nd January	Up to 100 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Kandy districts; and up to 20 mm in Badulla and Matara districts.
3rd January	Up to 20 mm in Colombo district; and up to 10 mm in Gampaha and Kalutara  districts.
4st January	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha district.
5th January	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
6th January	Up to 50 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee district; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle and Matara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for northern regions of Ratnapura district; and up to 10-25 mm in Kegalle districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and southern regions of Ratnapura district.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna, and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 8^th – 14^th Jan: Total rainfall more than 15 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in most parts of the island.
From 15^th – 21^st Jan: Total rainfall more than 15 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 8^th – 13^th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 19, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 2 January 2020)

                                                      Highlights                                

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in the western and central regions during 1- 6 Jan

• Between 24-30 Dec: up to 60 mm of rainfall were recorded in the southwestern regions of the island on the 24th and 25th

• From 24-30 Dec: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

• 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
24th December	Up to 60 mm in Colombo district; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha and Kalutara districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu, Ratnapura, Galle and Hambantota districts.
25th December	Up to 60 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura, Kegalle, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa, Puttalam and Hambantota districts.
26th December	Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
27th December	No Rainfall.
28st December	No Rainfall.
29th December	Up to 5 mm in Kurunegala district.
30th December	No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Galle district; up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara and Matara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Colombo, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts. Above average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Galle district. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara  districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Colombo, Jaffna and Hambantota districts; and up to 60 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Matara districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 500 mm were experienced by Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 200-300 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, and Hambantota districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 1^st – 7^th Jan: Total rainfall more than 45 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in most parts of the island.
From 8^th – 14^th Jan: Total rainfall more than 45 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 1^st – 6^th Dec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall not have an impact in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: December 19, 2019

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.