Highlights
• High likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 - 50mm) is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces and less rainfall (< 20 mm) is predicted for the rest during 24 April - 1 May.
• On average, only 3/5 of expected rainfall was
received over the Sri Lanka during 25 Mar - 23 April. Average
rainfall for SL was 2.6mm and for the hydro-catchment areas was 2.3mm.
• Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were south easterly
from 16 - 22 Apr reaching up to 3 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted south
eastely from 25 Apr - 1 May reaching up to 2 m/s.
• Average
land surface temperature was 33.9ºC in
the last week and warmer anomalies of +1-3ºC were
higher in the western slopes and coast compared to the northern and southern
regions. The temperature in SL has peaked for the
year.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 25th April - 1st May:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 20 - 40 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central
- 10 - 20 mm - Southern, North Central
- < 10 mm - North Western, Northern, Eastern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 15th
- 29th April for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: April 22, 2024
The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4
region show a +1.2 ºC
on the week ending 22nd April, and a weak El Nino is sustained.
Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024
before weakening thereafter.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over
the following area: Neboda.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th April
- 24th April) = 2.6 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 53.7 mm & Minimum
Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm..
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern plains |
0.6 |
35.4 |
26.6 |
|
Eastern hills |
0.3 |
29.7 |
19.8 |
|
Eastern plains |
0.0 |
34.7 |
26.0 |
|
Western hills |
3.3 |
31.7 |
19.9 |
|
Western plains |
9.6 |
33.6 |
26.1 |
|
Southern plains |
0.0 |
34.3 |
26.3 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
Hydro catchment |
2.3 |
49.5 |
0.0 |
Wind: South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The
temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the North Western,
Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Central, and Eastern provinces of the country,
driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the
next week (25th April - 1st May), moderate rainfall (25 -
50 mm) is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, and Central provinces and less rainfall (< 20 mm) is predicted
for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some
parts of the Northern, North Central, Uva, Eastern, and North Western provinces
during 25th April – 1st May.
Teleconnections: MJO shall near neutral
the rainfall during 15th - 29th April for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the May-June-July, 2024 season shows a 70% or more
tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.
