Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 April 2024)

Highlights          

 • High likelihood of light to moderate rainfall (25mm) is predicted for the Western province; less rainfall (≤ 15mm) is predicted for the North West, Central, Sab. and Uva Provinces and Dry conditions  are predicted for Northern and Eastern provinces during 3 - 9 April. 

 • On average, 2/3 of the expected rainfall was received over the country during 4 Mar - 2 April. Average rainfall for SL was 3.6mm and for the hydro-catchment areas was 4.1mm.

 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were  easterly from 25 - 31 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s.Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted south easterly from 4 - 10 Apr reaching up to 2m/s.

 •  Average land surface temperature was 33ºC in the last week and warmer anomalies of +1-3ºC were  higher in the Western slopes and coast compared to the Eastern and Northern regions. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3^rd April - 9^th April:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 25 mm - Western
• ≤ 15 mm - Northern, North Western, Eastern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, North Central, Central, Uva 

From 10^th April - 16^th April:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 25 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Eastern
• 15 mm - Northern, Central, North Western, North Central, Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 3^rd - 12^th April, and near neutral the rainfall during 13^th - 17^th April for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 1, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region show a +1.5 ºC on the week ending 1^st April, and a weak El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above normal to the country in 12^th - 18^th March 2024.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Makandura.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (27^th March - 4^th April) = 3.6 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 121.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	3.0	34.6	25.5
Eastern hills	4.4	28.8	18.0
Eastern plains	0.3	33.8	25.1
Western hills	7.5	31.0	19.3
Western plains	5.8	34.1	25.9
Southern plains	0.1	33.8	25.2

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	4.1	60.0	0.0

Wind: Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central, and Eastern provinces of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.                

     

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (3^rd April - 9^th April), moderate rainfall (25mm) is predicted for the Western province and less rainfall (≤ 15mm) is predicted for the rest.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Central, Eastern, North Western, and Uva provinces during 4^th - 10^th April.

Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 3^rd - 12^th April, and near neutral the rainfall during 13^th - 17^th April for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June, 2024 season shows a 40 - 50% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.