Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (28 August 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm Monaragala, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla district during 27th August -1st
 September. 

•   Between 20th - 26th August: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recorded in Moneragala district on 26th August.

•   From 19th - 25th August: up to 8 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•   1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
20th August	Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district.
21st August	Up to 2.5 mm in Moneragala district.
22nd August	Up to 5 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kaluthara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts.
23rd August	up to 30 mm in Matale and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 20 mm in Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 15 mm in Kandy districts; up to 10 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; and up to 5 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam and Batticaloa districts.
24th August	Up to 20 mm in Badulla district; up to 15 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Ampara districts; and up to 5 mm in Kegalle, Monaragala, Gampaha, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts.
25th August	Up to 40 mm in Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 30 mm in Batticaloa and Kandy districts; up to 20 mm in Matale district; up to 15 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts.
26th August	Up to 50 mm in Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 40 mm in Badulla and Anuradhapura districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya and Kandy districts; up to 20 mm in Matale and Batticaloa districts; up to 15 mm in Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Trincomalee districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 mm in Ampara and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Matale districts; and up to 25 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kalutara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts.

Above rainfall average up to 50 mm in Badulla district and up to 25 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts. Below rainfall average up to 50 mm in Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 25 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 8 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Vavuniya districts; up to 6 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala, Mannar, Moneragala, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Ratnapura, and Trincomalee districts; and up to 4 mm in Batticaloa, Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle, and Matara districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 27^th August – 2^nd September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Matara districts; up to 65 mm in Ratnapura and Monaragala districts; up to 55 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Badulla districts; and up to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale and Hambantota districsts; up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 25 mm in Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; and up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura district.

From 03^rd September – 09^th September: Total rainfall up to 125 mm in Galle, district; up to 115 mm in Kalutara and Matara districts; up to 105 mm in Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; up to 95 mm in Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 85 mm in Gampaha, Kandy and Monaragala  districts; up to 75 mm in Ampara and Kegalle districts; and up to 65 mm in Kurunegala and Matale districts; up to 55 mm in Puttalam district; up to 45 mm in Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; up to 35 mm in Jaffna district; up to 25 mm in  Anuradhapura district and up to 15 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 27^th August – 1^st September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Moneragala, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance rainfall during 26^th -30^th August and significantly enhance rainfall during 31^st August – 9^th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in mid-august, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 August 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 20 Monaragala district during 23rd -29th August. 

  •   Between 16th - 22nd  August: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Moneragala district on 17th August.

•   From  16th- 22nd August: up to 10 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•   1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th August	Up to 15 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 10 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Mannar, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Vavuniya districts.
17th August	Up to 20 mm in Monaragala district; and up to 10 mm in Badulla district.
18th August	No rainfall
19th August	up to 10 mm in Vavuniya district.
20th August	Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district.
21st August	Up to 2.5 mm in Moneragala district.
22nd August	Up to 5.0 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kaluthara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 5-10 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Jaffna, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 2 – 5 mm in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, Kilinochchi, and Mannar districts.

Below rainfall average up to 25 - 50 mm in Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura, Trincomalee and Vavuniya districts and up to 10 – 25 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kurunegala, Matara, Moneragala and Puttalam districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 8 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Vavuniya districts; up to 6 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala, Mannar, Moneragala, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Ratnapura, and Trincomalee districts; and up to 4 mm in Batticaloa, Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle, and Matara districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24^th August– 30^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 45 mm in Hambantota, Kandy, Kurunegala, Matale, Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25 mm in Batticaloa district. 

From 31^st August– 06^th September: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Colombo, Hambantota, Kegalle and Matara districts; up to 55 mm in Badulla, Gampaha, Kandy, Moneragala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, and puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in polonnaruwa district; up to 25 mm in Ampara district; and up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, and Mannar districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 23^rd August – 29^th August: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts; and up to 50 mm in Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Matale and Kandy districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 28^th  August – 6^th  September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 12, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in mid-august, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 August 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm in all district during 13th -18th August.

•   Between 6th - 12th August: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Matara districts on 6th August and Vavuniya, and Anuradhapura districts on 8th August.

•   From 4th - 12th August: up to 10 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•   1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
6th August	Up to 30 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, and Hambantota districts; up to 15 mm in Kurunegala and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
7th August	Up to 15 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Badulla district.
8th August	Up to 30 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 20 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Mannar districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Monaragala, Puttalam, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts.
9th August	Up to 20 mm in Galle, Matara, Vavuniya and Ratnapura districts; up to 15 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Hambantota, Badulla, Ampara, Mannar and Monaragala districts; up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale and Kandy districts.
10th August	No rainfall.
11th August	Up to 10 mm in Galle, Ampara, Monaragala and Matara districts.
12th August	No rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Monargala and Kegalle districts; up to 10– 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Jaffna, Polonnauwa, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Hambantota and Batticaloa districts; up to 5 – 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Kurunegala and Matale districts.

Above rainfall average up to 25-50 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts and up to 10-25 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle, Monaragala, and Hambantota distrcts. Below rainfall average up to 10-25 mm in Amapara and Badulla districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 10 mm were experienced by Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Anuradhapura districts; up to 6 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and up to 4 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th August – 19^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kegalle district; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 35 mm in Matale, Badulla, Puttalam, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

From 20^th August – 26^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kegalle district; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 35 mm in Matale, Badulla, Puttalam, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 13^th August – 18^th August: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in all districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 12 - 21 August and become neutral during 22-26 August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 August 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts during 5th -10th August. 

  •   Between 29th July - 4th August: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna district on 29th July

•  From 28th July - 3rd August: up to 15 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  1.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
29th July	Up to 30 mm in Jaffna districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
30th July	Up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
31st July	Up to 10 mm in Kegalle district.
1st August	Up to 15 mm in Galle district; and up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala and Ampara districts.
2nd August	Up to 15 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, and Nuwara Eliya districts.
3rd August	Up to 20 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 15 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.
4th August	Up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; and up to 10 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Jaffna and Ratnapura districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10– 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Jaffna, Polonnauwa, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts; up to 5 – 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Mannar, districts.

Above rainfall average up to 25-50 mm in Jaffna district. Below rainfall average up to 10-25 mm in Ratnapura district.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 10 mm were experienced by Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Anuradhapura districts; up to 6 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and up to 4 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th August – 12^th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara, districts; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; up to 35 mm in Matale, Kurunegala, Badulla, Puttalam, Monaragala, Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and districts.

From 13^th August – 19^th August: Total rainfall up to 45 mm in Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 35 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 25 mm in Puttalam, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla and Monaragala districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 5^th August – 10^st August: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matara, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Nuwara Eliya.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall enhance rainfall during 5 - 9 August, neutral during 10-14 August and shall suppressed during 15 – 19 August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: July 29, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late July, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.