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Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 August 2020)



   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 20 Monaragala district during 23rd -29th August. 
  •   Between 16th - 22nd  August: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Moneragala district on 17th August.
   From  16th- 22nd August: up to 10 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island
   0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.



Weekly Monitoring:



16th August

Up to 15 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 10 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Mannar, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Vavuniya districts.

17th August

Up to 20 mm in Monaragala district; and up to 10 mm in Badulla district.

18th August

No rainfall 

19th August

up to 10 mm in Vavuniya district.

20th August

Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district.

21st August

Up to 2.5 mm in Moneragala district.

22nd August

Up to 5.0 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Gampaha, Kaluthara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts.  

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 5-10 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Jaffna, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 2 – 5 mm in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, Kilinochchi, and Mannar districts.

Below rainfall average up to 25 - 50 mm in Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura, Trincomalee and Vavuniya districts and up to 10 – 25 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kurunegala, Matara, Moneragala and Puttalam districts.


Monthly Monitoring

During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 8 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Vavuniya districts; up to 6 mm in Ampara, Badulla, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala, Mannar, Moneragala, Mullaitivu, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Ratnapura, and Trincomalee districts; and up to 4 mm in Batticaloa, Colombo, Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle, and Matara districts.



14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24th August– 30th August: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 45 mm in Hambantota, Kandy, Kurunegala, Matale, Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25 mm in Batticaloa district. 

From 31st August– 06th September: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Colombo, Hambantota, Kegalle and Matara districts; up to 55 mm in Badulla, Gampaha, Kandy, Moneragala and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, and puttalam districts; up to 35 mm in polonnaruwa district; up to 25 mm in Ampara district; and up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, and Mannar districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 23rd August – 29th August: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts; and up to 50 mm in Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Matale and Kandy districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 28th  August – 6th  September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 12, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in mid-august, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State
0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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