Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 29, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

• The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Galle districts during 28 Aug – 2 Sep. 
• Between 21 – 26 Aug: up to 90 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Gampaha and Kegalle districts on the 21st. 
• From 20 – 26 Aug: up to 36 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island. 
• 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:  On August 21st, Gampaha and Kegalle districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 50 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Galle and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm.  On the 22nd, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Matale, Kegalle, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 23rd, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 24th, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha, Kegalle and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 25th, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Galle district up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Ampara and Matara districts up to 20 mm. On the 26th, Matale district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Kurunegala and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week:  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts; up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala. Nuwara Eliya, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm Puttalam district. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 50-100 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Jaffna, Puttalam, Matale and southern regions of Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.  Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya district; and up to 10-25 mm in Mannar, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Ampara, Kandy and northern regions of Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts. 

Monthly Monitoring: During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall conditions, up to 60 mm were experienced by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Batticaloa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Gampaha and Trincomalee districts. 

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28th Aug – 3rd Sep: Total rainfall up to 65 mm on Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 45-55 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

From 4th – 10th Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts. 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

30th Aug: Not Available

31st Aug: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 28th Aug – 2nd Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 25 mm in most parts of the island. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.

Indian Ocean State

0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 22, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

• The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara and Galle districts during 21 - 26 Aug. 
• Between 14 – 19 Aug: up to 100 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Polonnaruwa district on the 16th. 
• From 13 – 19 Aug: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island. 
• 1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On August 14th, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 10 mm.  On the 15th, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 16th, Polonnaruwa district received up to 100 mm of rainfall; Matale and Ampara districts up to 80 mm; Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Monaragala districts up to 60 mm; Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam and Badulla districts up to 50 mm; and Kandy and Kilinochchi districts up to 20 mm. On the 17th, Kurunegala district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 18th, Vavuniya district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura and Gampaha districts up to 50 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 30 mm; and Polonnaruwa district up to 20 mm. On the 19th, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 20th, Ratnapura district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale and Badulla districts; up to 50-75 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Galle districts. Above-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Monaragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.  Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Trincomalee, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Matara and Hambantota districts

Monthly Monitoring: During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall conditions, up to 60 mm were experienced by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Batticaloa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Gampaha and Trincomalee districts. 

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21st – 27th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm on Jaffna and Kilinochchi, districts; up to 35-45 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; and up to 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

From 27th Aug – 3rd Sep: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Ratnapura districts; and up to 15-25 mm in Jaffna, Colombo, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

23^rd Aug: Not Available

^24th Aug: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 21st – 26th Aug: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:  MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter

Indian Ocean State

1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 15, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

•  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts during 14 - 19 Aug. 
• Between 7 – 13 Aug: up to 140 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura district on the 13th. 
• From 6 – 12 Aug: up to 72 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the northern half of the island. 
• 1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka. 

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:  On August 7th, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Hambantota and Kandy districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya, Matale, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Mannar, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.  On the 8th, Galle district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kalutara district up to 20 mm. On the 9th, Galle district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Colombo, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Gampaha districts up to 50 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm; and Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 10th, Jaffna, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kilinochchi, Ampara and Matara districts up to 20 mm On the 11th, Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Badulla, Monaragala, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm. On the 12th, Colombo, Ampara and Monaragala districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 13th Ratnapura district received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 90 mm; Kalutara, Galle and Kandy districts up to 60 mm; Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Kurunegala and Matale districts up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 75-100 mm in Colombo, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam district. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm in Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara and Galle districts. 

Monthly Monitoring: During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Batticaloa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Gampaha and Trincomalee districts. 

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 14th – 20th Aug: Total rainfall up to 25 mm on Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, and Matara districts.

From 21st – 27th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts. 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

16^th Aug: Not Available

17^th Aug: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 14th – 19th Aug: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; and up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 8, 2019

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended. SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during July, and have remained neutral to present. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters have been near-average. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 08, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts during 7 - 12 Aug.

·  Between 31 Jul – 5 Aug: up to 50 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Trincomalee district on the 31^st.

·  From 30 Jul – 5 Aug: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·  1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On July 31^th, Trincomalee district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts received up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On August 1^st, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  On the 2^nd, Galle and Matara districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the 3^rd. On the 4^th, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 5^th, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, Matara and Anuradhapura districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and up to 5 mm of rainfall in most parts of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 25-50 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts. Above average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Kalutara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During July – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Batticaloa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 150 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Gampaha and Trincomalee districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 7^th – 13^th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm on Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

From 14^th – 20^th Aug: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Galle and Matra districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Gamapaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

9^th Aug: Not Available

10^th Aug: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 7^th – 12^th Aug: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 75 mm in Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 50 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Jaffna districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days and shall not have an impact on the following 10 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 8, 2019

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended. SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during July, and have remained neutral to present. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters have been near-average. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 01, August 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 3 – 8 Jul.

·  Between 24 Jun – 1 Jul: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts on the 24^th.

·  From 26 Jun – 2 Jul: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

·  1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On June 24^th, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts. On the 25^th, Jaffna, Kilinonochchi, and Mullaitivu districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.  On the 26^th, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period 27^th - 29^th. On the 30^th, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On July 1^st, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Gampaha and Kurunegala districts; and 5-10 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts..

Monthly Monitoring: During May – Above average rainfall conditions up to 60 mm were experienced by Puttalam, Kurunegala. Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and southern parts of the Ratnapura district. Below average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 90 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantoa, Kegalle and Colombo districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 200 mm of total rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 150 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 100 mm in Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 75 mm in Batticaloa, Hambantota, Monaragala, Matale and Kandy districts

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3^rd - 9^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.

From 10^th - 16^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 15-25 mm Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

5^th Jul: Not Available

6^th Jul: Not Available

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 3^rd – 8^th Jul: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 19, 2019

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019. The official CPC/IRI outlook, with an El Niño advisory, calls for a 66% chance of El Niño continuing during Jun-Aug, decreasing to 50-55% for continuing through fall and winter.

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.