Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 July 2022)

  

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Jaffna districts; fairly heavy rainfall (50–100 mm) is expected for Sabaragamuwa, Central, and Uva provinces and Galle and Matara districts during 29 Jul - 2 Aug.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 6.7 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 11.6 mm on average.

 • From 18th - 24th July, up to 10 m/s of south-westerly and north-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 27^th July – 2^nd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   95 mm - Southern
•   85 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva
•   75 mm - Western, Eastern
•   55 mm - North-central, North-western

From 3^rd August – 9^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   25 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central
•   15 mm - Eastern, North-central, North-western, Uva, Southern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 27^th July - 5^th August; and near-neutral during 6^th August – 10^th August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 20, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean inlate-July. The tropical Pacific Sea surface temperatures show a classical La Niña pattern. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Galle 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (19^th July - 26^th July) = 6.7 mm

Rmax: 105.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	7.1 mm
Eastern	10.8 mm
Western	4.6 mm
Southern Plains	2.4 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 11.6 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 90.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Wind:

South-westerly and North-westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for Sabaragamuwa province and below normal for the north-central and eastern provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^th July - 2^nd August) heavy rainfall is predicted for Jaffna districts and fairly heavy rainfall (50 – 100 mm) is expected for Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces and Galle and Matara districts. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern province during 28^th July – 3^rd August. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 27^th July - 5^th August; and near-neutral during 6^th August – 10^th August.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 July 2022)

 

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (>100mm) is predicted for Jaffna district and fairly heavy rainfall (75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts during 22nd- 26th July.

 • During the last week ,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 7.3 mm on average.

 • From 11th - 17th July, up to 20 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the Island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th July – 26^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   75 mm - Southern
•   65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•   55 mm - Uva, Central
•   45 mm - Western, Eastern
•   35 mm - North-central, North-western

From 27^th July – 2^nd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• >100 mm - Northern
•   65 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central
•   55 mm - Eastern, North-western, Uva
•   45 mm - North-central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral during 20^th - 24^th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th July – 3^rd August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 13, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was near-neutral around the Island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Anuradhapura 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11^th July - 18^th July) = 2.9 mm

Rmax: 105.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	2.9 mm
Eastern	4.1 mm
Western	2.6 mm
Southern Plains	0.4 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 7.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 90.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for southern province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd - 26^thJuly) heavy rainfall is predicted for Jaffna districts and fairly heavy rainfall (up to75 mm) is expected for Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 22^nd – 27^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral during 20^th - 24^th July; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th July – 3^rd August.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 July 2022)

      

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall  is predicted for Jaffna, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts;The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 15th - 19th July.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.6 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 5.8 mm on average.

 •  From 4th - 10th July, up to 20 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th July – 19^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 25 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• <15 mm - Remaining Provinces

From 20^th July – 26^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm - Northern
• 45 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - Uva, Central, Eastern, Western
• 25 mm - North-central, North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral for the country during 13^th - 27^th July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-July. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara-Eliya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (5^th July - 12^th July) = 0.6 mm

Rmax: 33.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.0 mm
Eastern	0.2 mm
Western	1.3 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 5.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 56.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for southern province, driven by the warm SST’s

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (15^th - 19^thJuly) moderate rainfall is predicted for Jaffna, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 15^th – 20^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral for the country during 13^th - 27^th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 July 2022)

     

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall  (25mm-50mm) is predicted for the Colombo, Kalutara Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 8th - 12th July.

 • During the last week, hydro catchment areas have received 14.5mm of rainfall on average. On July 2, nearly one-foot high waves flooded into the land along the Colombo-Matara main road due to rough seas.

 •  From 27th June - 3rd July, up to 15 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th July– 12^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

•  35 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
•  25 mm - Western, Eastern
•  15 mm - Northern
• <10 mm - Uva, Central, North-central, North-western

From 13^th July– 19^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 35 mm - Western
• 25 mm - Uva, Central, North-western, Eastern
• 15 mm - North-central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near neutral during 6^th - 10^th July; and slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 20^th July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 29, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Norton

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28^th June - 5^th July) = 1.5 mm

Rmax: 31.1 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.0 mm
Eastern	1.3 mm
Western	3.2 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 14.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 162.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for southern half of the country and below normal for the north-central province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th - 12^thJuly) moderate rainfall is predicted for the Colombo, Kalutara Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the North-central, Uva and Eastern provinces during 8^th – 13^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near neutral during 6^th - 10^th July; and slightly suppress the rainfall during 11^th - 20^th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.