Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 July 2022)

    

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (>100mm) is predicted for Kalutara, Ratnapura & Galle districts; fairly heavy showers (>55 mm) will occur in North-western & central provinces during 29 June-5 July.

 • During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.0 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 3.5 mm on average.

 • From 20th - 26th June, up to 15 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 29^th June– 05^th July:  

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 115 mm - Western
•  85 mm - North-western
•  75 mm - Uva, Central
•  55 mm - Eastern, North-central
•  45 mm - Northern

From 6^th July– 12^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 85 mm - Southern
• 55 mm - North-western
• 45 mm - Uva, Central
• 25 mm - North Central, Eastern, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29^th June - 8^th July; and near neutral during 9^th - 13^th July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 22, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Galle

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (20^th - 27^th June) = 1.0 mm

Rmax: 29.6 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.1 mm
Eastern	0.7 mm
Western	2.5 mm
Southern Plains	0.1 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 26.5 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-normal for the island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^thJune - 5^thJuly) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; fairly heavy showers (>55 mm) will occur in North-western & central provinces and the rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.

Temperature:

The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-eastern, Uva and Eastern provinces during 1^St – 6^th July. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29^th June - 8^th July; and near neutral during 9^th - 13^th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.