Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 October 2020)

              Highlights                             

  •   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts  up to 65 mm rainfall will be experienced by the southwest of the island from 5th-11th Nov.

  •   Between 21st - 27th Oct: up to 160 mm in Moneragala, Badulla, and Ratnapura districts on 27th Oct.

  •   MJO shall significantly suppress during 28^th Oct – 6^th Nov and slightly suppress during 7^th – 11^th Nov.which is leading to dry conditions. La Nina type Eastern Equatorial Pacific could be the cause of the dry conditions

•   From 21st - 27th Oct:up to 10 km/h  northwesterly winds were experienced by the southern half of the island.

•  Less than 0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Daily Maximum Rainfall
21st October	Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district.
22nd October	Up to 10 mm in Jaffna district
23rd October	No rainfall.
24th October	Up to 90 mm in Moneragala and Ampara districts.
25th October	Up to 50 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts.
26th October	Up to 40 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Moneragala, Badulla, and Ratnapura districts.
27th October	Up to 160 mm in Moneragala, Badulla, and Ratnapura districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150 – 200 mm in Moneragala, Badulla, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; up to 100 – 150 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 75 -100 mm in Nuwara Eliya, and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Mannar, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Hambantota and Kurunegala; up to 25 – 50 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Jaffna districts; and up to 5 – 10 mm in Kilinochchi district. 

Above rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Moneragala, Badulla, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Batticaloa, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna; and up to 25 – 50 mm in Hambantota district. 

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 12 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 8 mm in Mannar district; up to 5 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 2 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 29^th October – 4^th November: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in   Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Colombo districts; up to 45 mm in Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Gampaha districts; up to 35 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 25 mm in Matale, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 15 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, and Jaffna districts. 

From 5^th – 11^th November: Total rainfall up to 65 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 55 mm Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Kandy and Puttalam districts; up to 45 mm in Matara and Matale districts; up to 35 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts; and 25 mm in Mannar district. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress during 28^th oct – 6^th Nov and slightly suppress during 7^th – 11^th Nov.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 21, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late-October, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. 

Indian Ocean State

Less than 0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 October 2020)

              Highlights                             

  •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 85 mm in Ratnapura, Kegalle and Colombo districts during 29th Oct - 4th Nov.

  •  Between 14th - 20th Oct up to 30 mm in Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts. However, the rainfall deficits for the last two weeks in Sri Lanka.

  •  MJO shall severely suppress during 21^st– 30^th Oct and significantly suppress during 31^th Oct – 4^th Nov which is leading to dry conditions. La Nina type Eastern Equatorial Pacific could be the cause of the dry conditions

•  From 7th - 13th Oct: up to 15 km/h  northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Daily Maximum Rainfall
14th October	Up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts.
15th October	Up to 15 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle districts.
16th October	No rainfall.
17th October	Up to 30 mm in Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts.
18th October	Up to 20 mm in Batticaloa district.
19th October	Up to 5 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Mannar districts.
20th October	Up to 10 mm in Mullaitivu district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25 – 50 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 5 – 10 mm in Puttalam and Hambantota districts. 

Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 25 – 50 mm in Batticaloa district. 

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 12 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 8 mm in Mannar district; up to 5 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 2 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 22^nd October – 28^th October: Total rainfall up to 65 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Galle and Kegalle districts; up to 55 mm in Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Gampaha districts; up to 45 mm in Kandy and Kurunegala districts; up to 35 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla and Matale districts; up to 25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Puttalam and Ampara districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts. 

From 29^th October – 4^th November: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Ratnapura, Kegalle and Colombo districts; up to 75 mm in Galle and Gampaha districts; up to 65 mm in Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Kurunegala districts; up to 55 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla and Puttalam districts; up to 45 mm in Matale district; up to 35 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; up to 25 mm in Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts; and up to 15 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall severely suppress during 21^st– 30^th Oct and significantly suppress during 31^th Oct – 4^th Nov.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 7, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early -October, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 October 2020)

              Highlights                             

  •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha and Kegalle districts during 22nd -28th Oct. 

  •  Between 8th - 14th Oct up to 90 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts.

• From 7th - 13th Oct:up to 15 km/h  northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

• 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
8th October	Up to 90 mm in Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts.
9th October	Up to 70 mm in Moneragala and Ampara districts.
10th October	Up to 30 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Kandy districts.
11th October	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts.
12th October	Up to 10 mm in Galle, Matara, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
13th October	Up to 15 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
14th October	Up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50 – 70 mm in Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kandy, Kalutara, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Mannar, Trincomalee and Matara districts; and up to 10 -25 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Krunegala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts.

Above rainfall average up to 10 – 25 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm Matale, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha and Trincomalee districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Badulla, Kandy, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Kalutara, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. 

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 12 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 8 mm in Mannar district; up to 5 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 2 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 15^th October – 21^th October: Total rainfall up to 65 mm in Ratnapura, Kegalle and Gampaha districts; up to 55 mm in Galle, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; up to 45 mm in Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy districts; up to 35 mm in Hambantota, Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 25 mm in Matale district; and up to 15 mm in Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.  

From 22^nd October – 28^th October: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; up to 65 mm in Galle, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; up to 45 mm in Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale districts; up to 35 mm Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 25 mm in Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa and Anuradhapura districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress during 14^th-18^th Oct and shall severely suppress during 19^th–23^rd Oct.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 7, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early -October, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 October 2020)

 

              Highlights                             

  •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 95 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts during 15th -21st Oct

  •  Between 31st Sep- 6th Oct up to 40 mm received in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts

• From 30th Sep - 6th Oct: North westerly winds up to 10 km/h were experienced in the southern half of the island.

• 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
30th September	Up to 15 mm in Galle and Matara district.
1st October	Up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
2nd October	Up to 40 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts.
3rd October	Up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha. Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Badulla, Ampara and Moneragala districts.
4th  October	No rainfall.
5th October	No rainfall.
6th October	Up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura district

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala and Ampara districts; and up to 5 – 10 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ratnapura, Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Matara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Hambantota, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During September – Above average rainfall conditions up to 12 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 8 mm in Mannar district; up to 5 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; and up to 2 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Kegalle districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th October – 14^th October: Total rainfall up to 95 mm in Ratnapura, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; up to 85 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Kurunegala districts; up to 75 mm in Matara and Puttalam districts; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts; up to 55 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala and Badulla districts; up to 25 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.   

From 15^th October – 21^th October: Total rainfall up to 95 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts; up to 85 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Matara district; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts; up to 55 mm in Hambantota district; up to 45 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts; up to 25 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 15 mm in Batticaloa district. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress during 7^th-16^th Oct and shall significantly suppress during 17^th–22^nd Oct.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 30, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in Late-September, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.