Highlights
• During 3 - 9 July, high
likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa,
Western, Southern, and North Western provinces; light to
moderate rainfall (12.5 -25 mm) is predicted for the Central province; below 10
mm rainfall is predicted for the rest.
• On average, 2.2 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in
the Western plains (7.1 mm) and hills (2.6 mm).On average, 4.3 mm was received in the hydro catchments; Lakshapana
received the highest rainfall (27 mm). Highest daily rainfall was in Helboda North (Nuwara Eliya District) on
27 June. (73.0 mm).
• From 25 Jun - 1 Jul, winds at 850mb (1.5km)
westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 4 Jul - 10 Jul, winds are predicted to
be north westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s.
• Average
land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in
the last week with cooler anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by
Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.25 - 1.5ºC above average.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 3rd July - 9th July:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 35 mm - Southern, North Western
- 25 mm - Central
- ≤ 10 mm - North Central, Northern, Eastern, Uva
From 10th July - 16th July:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 25 mm - North Western, Southern
- 15 mm - Central
- ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Central, Eastern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall moderately
enhance the rainfall during 3th - 7th July and slightly
enhance the rainfall during 8th July - 17th July for Sri
Lanka
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 2, 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions
are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in
the west-central Pacific Ocean, near-average in the east-central Pacific Ocean,
and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean in early July. La Niña is favored
to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was 1.0℃
above
average on the Western, Eastern and Southern sides of the country from 11th to 17th June 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been fairly heavy rainfall
over the following area: Helboda North (Nuwara Eliya)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (27 June - 3 July) = 2.2 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 34.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern
plains |
0.2 |
33.5 |
26.6 |
|
Eastern hills |
1.1 |
29.2 |
18.7 |
|
Eastern
plains |
0.4 |
35.3 |
25.6 |
|
Western
hills |
2.6 |
27.8 |
19.9 |
|
Western
plains |
7.1 |
31.2 |
25.9 |
|
Southern
plains |
0.9 |
32.6 |
25.7 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
All SL |
2.2 |
34.3 |
0.0 |
|
Hydro catchment |
4.3 |
39.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature
anomalies were below normal for some parts of the Southern province driven by
the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (3 July - 9 July), moderate rainfall (25
- 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, and
North Western provinces and light to moderate
rainfall (12.5 - 25 mm) is predicted for the Central province and less rainfall
is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will
remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces during
4 July - 10 July.
Teleconnections: MJO shall moderately enhance the
rainfall during 3 – 7 July and slightly enhance the rainfall during 8 July - 17
July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2024 season shows a 45 -
50% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the country.
