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Friday, July 1, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 July 2022)

    

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (>100mm) is predicted for Kalutara, Ratnapura & Galle districts; fairly heavy showers (>55 mm) will occur in North-western & central provinces during 29 June-5 July.
 • During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.0 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 3.5 mm on average.
 • From 20th - 26th June, up to 15 m/s of westerly to south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 29th June– 05th July 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 115 mm - Western
  •  85 mm - North-western
  •  75 mm - Uva, Central
  •  55 mm - Eastern, North-central
  •  45 mm - Northern
From 6th July– 12th July
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 85 mm - Southern
  • 55 mm - North-western
  • 45 mm - Uva, Central
  • 25 mm - North Central, Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29th June - 8th July; and near neutral during 9th - 13th July.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 22, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was above average of 0.5°C around Sri Lanka.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Galle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (20th - 27th June) = 1.0 mm
Rmax: 29.6 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.


Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.1 mm

Eastern

0.7 mm

Western

2.5 mm

Southern Plains

0.1 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 26.5 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near-normal for the island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (29thJune - 5thJuly) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; fairly heavy showers (>55 mm) will occur in North-western & central provinces and the rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, North-eastern, Uva and Eastern provinces during 1St – 6th July
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29th June - 8th July; and near neutral during 9th - 13th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and for the rest of the districts there is a tendency to the neutral tercile.

Friday, June 24, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (24 June 2022)

   

Highlights          

 • During 24th-28th June, fairly heavy rainfall (>75mm) is predicted for Kalutara, Colombo & Galle districts; and showers (>55 mm) will occur in Ratnapura & Puttalam districts.
 • During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 3.6 mm on average.
 • From 13th - 19th June, up to 8 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the north, east and south of the island. Land surfacetemperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 22nd – 28th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Western
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 55 mm - North-western
  • 25 mm - Uva, Central
  • 15 mm - Eastern, North-central, Northern
From 29th June– 05th July
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 105 mm - Southern
  •  85 mm - North-western
  •  55 mm - Uva, Central
  •  35 mm - North Central, Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 22nd - 1st July; and near neutral during 2nd - 6th July.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 15, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the north, east and south of the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Ratnapura 
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (14th - 21st June) = 4.9 mm
Rmax: 78.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.


Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

3.6 mm

Eastern

5.5 mm

Western

4.9 mm

Southern Plains

5.5 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 3.6 mm of average rainfall for the last week 
Rmax: 43 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.  
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below-normal to the north-east of the country and near-normal for the rest, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (24th - 28th June) fairly heavy rainfall (>75 mm) is predicted for the Kalutara, Colombo and Galle districts and showers (>55 mm) will occur in Ratnapura and Puttalam districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Northern, Uva and Eastern provinces during 24th – 29th June.  
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 22nd - 1st July; and near neutral during 2nd - 6th July.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows a higher tendency for above-normal precipitation for the Jaffna district, and a tendency for the neutral tercile for the rest of the districts.

Friday, June 17, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (17 June 2022)

  

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall during 16th-21st June
 • During the last week,the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.4 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 2.9 mm on average.
 • From 6th - 12th June, up to 15 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east and south of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 15th – 21st June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  •  145 mm - Western
  •  125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  •  95 mm - North-western
  •  65 mm - Central, Uva
  •  55 mm - Eastern
  •  45 mm - North-central, Northern
From 22nd – 28th June
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 115 mm - Western
  •  95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  •  75 mm - North-western
  •  45 mm - Uva
  •  35 mm - Central, Eastern
  •  25 mm - North Central, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 15th - 19th June; and near neutral during 20th – 29th June.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 8, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east and south of the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Kalutara
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (6th - 13th June) = 1.4 mm
Rmax: 37.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.2 mm

Eastern

1.0 mm

Western

3.3 mm

Southern Plains

0.2 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 2.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week 
Rmax: 27.4 mm & Rmin: 0 mm 
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near-normal, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (17th - 21st June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and Galle and Matara districts. The rest of the country is expected to have less rainfall.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Uva and Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 16th – 22nd June
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 15th - 19th June; and near neutral during 20th – 29th June.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September season shows above-normal precipitation for the north of the country.

Friday, June 10, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 June 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Very High rainfall (>100mm) is predicted in total for Ratnapura; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.8 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 10.8 mm on average.
 • From 30th May - 5th June, up to 15 m/s of south-westerly winds were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island. Land surface temperature remained near normal.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 8th – 14th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  95 mm - Western
  •  85 mm - Southern
  •  45 mm - North-western
  •  35 mm - Central, Uva
  •  15 mm - North-central
From 15th – 21th June
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Western, Southern
  •  75 mm - North Western
  •  65 mm - Central
  •  55 mm - Uva
  •  45 mm - North Central
  •  25 mm - Eastern, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8th - 12th June; near neutral during 13th – 17th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18th – 22nd June. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 1, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed to be above average of 0.5°C to the east of the island.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kegalle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31th May - 7th June) = 2.8 mm
Rmax: 64.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.1 mm

Eastern

0.1 mm

Western

7.6 mm

Southern Plains

1.5 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 10.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 86 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Western, North central and North western, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (8th - 14th June) heavy rainfall (>100 mm) is predicted for the Ratnapura district; more than 50mm for parts of Galle and Kalutara districts. Drier conditions are predicted for north & east of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature remains above normal in the Uva and Eastern province and slightly below normal in the central province during 8th - 16th June
Teleconnections:
La Niña - Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (August-October 2022).
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 8th - 12th June; near neutral during 13th – 17th June; and moderately enhance the rainfall during 18th – 22nd June. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August season shows below-normal precipitation for the southern province and above-normal precipitation to the north province.