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Friday, April 9, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 45 mm expected in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 15th - 21st April with a drop in rainfall elsewhere
  •   Heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern province with a maximum of  74 mm in Galle on 6th Apr.
•  From 30th Mar - 05th Apr: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by northern half of the island.
•    Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Galle
  • 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura
  • 5 – 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Moneragala, Badulla
  • 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle
There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 – 25 mm - Anuadhapura


Rainfall Deficit
  • 50 – 100 mm - Ratnapura
  • 25 – 50 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11th – 20th March:
  • 10 mm - Kalutara
  • 8 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalle, Colombo, Galle
  • 6 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Hambantota, Badulla, Moneragala, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale

21st – 31st March:

  • 14 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Moneragala
  • 12 mm - Badulla
  • 10 mm - Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 8 mm - Matale, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Batticaloa, Anuradhapura
  • 4 mm - Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8th – 14th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 25 mm - Central
  • 15 mm - Northern, North Central, North western, Eastern, Southern, Uva
From 15th – 21st April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Central, Uva, Southern
  • 25 mm - Eastern
  • 15 mm - North western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
         MJO shall significantly suppressed the rainfall during 7th – 16th Apr and slightly suppressed during 17th– 21st Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: March 31, 2021 
          Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the middle west Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
        Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average to the North of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.

Friday, April 2, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (2 April 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

•  Showers of 65 mm expected in Sabaragamuwa provinces during 7th13th  Apr. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.
  •  Extremely Dangerous rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa & Western provinces. Up to 222 mm max in Ratnapura and Hambantota.
•  From 23rd - 29th March: up to 8 km/h easterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.
•   Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5C to the East of Sri Lanka and neutral to the West.
 





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara
  • 150 – 200 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya
  • 100 – 150 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 75 – 100 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota
  • 50 – 75 mm - Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu



Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 50 – 100 mm - Puttalam, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Hambantota
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya
There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.
  

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1st – 10th March:
  • 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
  • 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 14 mm - Matara
  • 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
  • 10 mm - Puttalam
  • 8 mm - Matale
  • 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

11th – 20th March:

  • 12 mm - Kalutara
  • 8 mm - Galle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Hambantota, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 4 mm - Matara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Mannar, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Matale, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 31st March – 6th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 25 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 15 mm - Southern, North western
From 7th – 13th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Western, Southern
  • 45 mm - Uva, Eastern, Central
  • 35 mm - North Western
  • 25 mm - North Central
  • 15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be neutral the rainfall during 30th Mar – 3rdApr and significantly suppress during 4th– 13th Apr.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: March 24, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5C to the East of Sri Lanka and neutral to the West.

Monday, March 29, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

•  Showers of 75 mm expected in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 24th - 30th Mar. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.
  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 153 mm max in Galle on 18thMar.
•  From 16th  - 22ndMarch: up to 8 km/h easterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.
•  Sea surface temperature was observed Neutral around along the Sri Lanka  





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala, Gampaha
  • 150 – 200 mm - Kegalle
  • 100 – 150 mm - Puttalam, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 75 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Hambantota
  • 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Matale
  • 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining district  



Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala
  • 100 – 200 mm - Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle
  • 50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota
  • 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Matara
  • 10 – 25 mm - Matale
There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.
  

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1st – 10th March:
  • 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
  • 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 14 mm - Matara
  • 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
  • 10 mm - Puttalam
  • 8 mm - Matale
  • 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

11th – 20th March:

  • 12 mm - Kalutara
  • 8 mm - Galle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara
  • 6 mm - Hambantota, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 4 mm - Matara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Mannar, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Matale, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24th – 30th March: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 75 mm - Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - Uva, Central, Eastern
  • 55 mm - North Western
  • 35 mm - North Central
  • 25 mm - Northern
From 31st March – 6th April: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 25 mm - Southern, Uva
  • 15 mm - North Western, Eastern, Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall significantly enhanced the rainfall during 23rd Mar– 1st Apr and neutral during 2nd– 6thApr.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: March 17, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.  

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed near neutral around along the Sri Lanka.

Friday, March 19, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

• Showers of 65 mm expected in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva & Southern provinces during 20th-24th March.
  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 10th - 16th March.
•  From 9th - 15th March: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.
•   SST was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern & some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.





Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
  • 75 – 100 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 50 – 75 mm - Galle
  • 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matara, Mannar
  • 10 – 25 mm - Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Badulla
  • 5 – 10 mm - Mullaitivu
  • 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna


Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Colombo
  • 50 – 100 mm - Gampaha, Kalutara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle
  • 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Ampara, Hambanthota, Moneragala, Puttalam, Mannar

Rainfall Deficit
  • 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala
  • 25 – 50 mm - Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Badulla
  • 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21st – 28th February:
  • 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
  • 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
  • 2 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

1st – 10th March:

  • 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
  • 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
  • 14 mm - Matara
  • 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
  • 10 mm - Puttalam
  • 8 mm - Matale
  • 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
  • 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17th – 23rd March: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 65 mm - Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
  • 55 mm - Central, Western
  • 35 mm - North central, North western
  • 25 mm - Northern
From 24th – 30th March: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Eastern, Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
  • 55 mm - North central
  • 45 mm - Northern, North western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall neutral the rainfall during 16th – 20th March and significantly enhanced during 21st– 30th March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: March 10, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 1.5above average in Southern and some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.