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Friday, March 15, 2024

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 March 2024)

                                         

Highlights          


 • Dry weather conditions are predicted for next week while high likelihood of scattered showers (≤ 5mm) may occur from 13 - 19 March
 •  On average, 1/6 of the predicted rainfall was received over the country during 12 Feb - 13 Mar. Rainfall on 8 March was highest (115 mm) at Keragala (SP).
 •  Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 4 - 10 Mar reaching up to  6 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 14 - 20 Mar reaching up to  3 m/s.
 •  Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (38.3ºC) & Puttalam (37.9ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 13th March - 19th March:     
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • ≤ 5 mm - Eastern, Uva, Central, Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Central, North Westernn
From 20th March - 26th March:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • ≤ 5 mm - Eastern, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Southern, Northern, North Western, North Central  
    MJO based OLR predictions:
    For the next 15 days: 
    MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 13th - 17th March and moderately suppress the rainfall during 18th - 27th March for Sri Lanka.

    Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
    Pacific Sea Sate: March 11, 2024 
    The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 11th March - thus a moderate-strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

    Indian Sea Sate
    Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0above normal to the country in 20th February - 26th February 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.

    Interpretation


    Monitoring
    RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Keragala.

    Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (6th - 13th March) = 0.7 mm

    Maximum Daily Rainfall: 106.9 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.


    Region

    Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

    Maximum

    Minimum

    Northern plains

    0.0

    34.1

    23.5

    Eastern hills

    0.0

    28.6

    16.3

    Eastern plains

    0.0

    33.3

    23.3

    Western hills

    5.3

    30.5

    18.8

    Western plains

    0.7

    33.7

    25.0

    Southern plains

    0.0

    34.7

    24.0











    Region

    Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Hydro catchment

    0.8

    43.0

    0.0






    Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
    Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, and Central provinces and below normal for some parts of the Northern province of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.               
    Predictions
    Rainfall: During the next week (13th March - 19th March), light showers (≤ 5mm) are predicted for the country.
    Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the country during 14th - 20th March.
    Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
    MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 13th - 17th March and moderately suppress the rainfall during 18th - 27th March for Sri Lanka.
    Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.         

    Friday, March 8, 2024

    Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 March 2024)

                                            

    Highlights          


     • High likelihood of   light showers (15mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva and Centeral  provinces during      6 - 12 March.
     •  Rainfall on 28 Feb was highest (88 mm) at  Rufus Wewa (EP). During the last February, 60mm rainfall expected but received only 10 mm.
     •  Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 26 Feb - 3 Mar reaching up to 8 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 7 - 13 Mar reaching up to 4 m/s.
     •  Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (37.0ºC) & Katunayake (36.7ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained.




    Predictions

    Rainfall

    14-day prediction: 
    NOAA NCEP models: 
    From 6th March - 12th March:   
    Total rainfall by Provinces
    • 15 mm - Eastern, Uva, Central 
    • ≤ 5 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Central, North Western
    From 13th March - 19th March:  
    Total rainfall by Provinces
    • 15 mm - Eastern, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Southern 
    • ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Western, North Central 
      MJO based OLR predictions:
      For the next 15 days: 
      MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th - 10th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 11th - 15th March, and moderately suppress the rainfall during 16th - 20th March for Sri Lanka.

      Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
      Pacific Sea Sate: March 4, 2024 
      The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 4th March - thus a moderate-strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

      Indian Sea Sate
      Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5above normal to the Northern, Western, and Southern half of the country in 13th February - 19th February 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.

      Interpretation


      Monitoring
      RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas: Rufus Wewa, Kahaduwa.

      Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28th February - 6th March) = 0.0 mm

      Maximum Daily Rainfall: 2.7 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.


      Region

      Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

      Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

      Maximum

      Minimum

      Northern plains

      0.0

      32.8

      23.5

      Eastern hills

      0.0

      27.0

      16.6

      Eastern plains

      0.0

      32.2

      24.0

      Western hills

      0.1

      29.9

      17.8

      Western plains

      0.0

      33.9

      24.9

      Southern plains

      0.0

      34.2

      24.4












      Region

      Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

      Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

      Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

      Hydro catchment

      0.1

      5.0

      0.0






      Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
      Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western, Eastern, Central, and Uva provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.         
      Predictions
      Rainfall: During the next week (6th March - 12th March), light showers (15 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces of the country.
      Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, Northern, North Central, Southern, and Uva provinces during 7th - 13th March.
      Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
      MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th - 10th March, slightly suppress the rainfall during 11th - 15th March, and moderately suppress the rainfall during 16th - 20th March for Sri Lanka.
      Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.