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Friday, September 24, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (24 September 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  Heavy rainfall is predicted in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces during 24th - 28th Sept. Greater likelihood of dry tendency than normal is predicted in southern Sri Lanka from Oct to Dec.
 •  Heavy rainfalls were experienced in Eastern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 135.2 mm in Trincomalee district on 17th Sept
 •  From 14th - 20th Sept: up to 35 km/h from Southwesterly were experienced the entire island.
 •  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the South and 1.00C to the North of Sri Lanka.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 22nd – 28th September
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 115 mm - Southern
  • 105 mm - Central
  •  95 mm - North Western
  •  85 mm - Uva 
  •  65 mm - East, North Central
  •  55 mm - Northern
From 29th September – 5th  October
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 75 mm - Central, Southern
  • 65 mm - North Western
  • 45 mm - Uva
  • 35 mm - Eastern, Northern, North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 24th September – 6th October. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: September 15, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in mid-September. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5to the South and 1.00C to the North of Sri Lanka. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Eastern, North-Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western.
Wind: 
Southwesterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were between 10C – 30C in Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week – driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (24th - 28th September) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western and Central provinces. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly normal for September. During 24th September – 2nd October, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern, Southern and Uva provinces.
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral is present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall from 24th September – 6th October. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus has switched from neutral to having a dry tendency.  It can damage agriculture by adding fertilizer bans and generating hydropower due to scarcity in $.

Friday, September 17, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (17 September 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  Heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces during 17th - 21st Sept. Greater likelihood of dry tendency than normal is predicted in the southern SL from October to December.
 •  Fairly heavy rains were experienced in the Western,  Sabaragamuwa, Southern & North Western provinces with max of 91.7 mm in Ratnapura district on 15th September.
 •  From 7th - 13th September: up to  15 km/h from Southwesterly were experienced over the island.
 •  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the South and West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 15th – 21st September
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 105 mm - Southern, Western
  •  95 mm - Central
  •  85 mm - Uva 
  •  75 mm - North Western 
  •  65 mm - Eastern
  •  45 mm - North Central
  •  35 mm - Northern
From 22nd – 28th September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  95 mm - Southern, Western
  •  85 mm - Central
  •  65 mm - North Western, Uva
  •  45 mm - Eastern, North Central
  •  35 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 17th – 29th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: September 8, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early-September and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5to the South and West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.

Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Sabaragamuwa, Western, North-Western and Southern.
Wind: 
Southwesterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the whole country last week – driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (17th – 21st September) heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly normal for September. During 17th – 25th September, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern, Northern, North Central and Uva provinces.
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral and will likely remain so through the boreal summer. 
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 17th – 29th September. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus has switched from neutral to having a dry tendency.  If so, it can hurt agriculture adding to fertilizer bans and hydro-power generation, given $ scarcity.


Friday, September 10, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 September 2021)


Highlights          

                   

 •  Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces during 10th - 14th September
 •  Fairly heavy rains were experienced in the Central, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with max of 94.5 mm in Matara district on 4th September
 •  From 31st Aug- 6th Sept: up to  15 km/h from Southwesterly were experienced over the island
 •  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 8th – 14th September
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Western, Southern
  • 45 mm - Central
  • 35 mm - Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
  • 15 mm - Northern 
From 15th – 21st September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa 
  • 65 mm - Central, Western
  • 55 mm - Southern
  • 45 mm - Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
  • 15 mm - Northern, North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 10th – 22nd September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: September 1, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early-September and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.

Friday, September 3, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (3 September 2021)


Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Northern, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces and Galle and Matara districts during 3rd - 7th September.
  • Fairly heavy rains were experienced in the Southern, Central, Sabaragamuwa & Western provinces with max of 86 mm in Matara district on 1st September.
  • From 24th- 30th August: up to  15 m/s from Southwesterly were experienced over the island.
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 1st – 7st September
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 55 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
  • 45 mm - Uva
  • 35 mm - Eastern
  • 25 mm - North Central, North Western
From 8th – 14th September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Central, Western, Southern
  • 25 mm - Uva, Northern
  • 15 mm - Eastern 
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 3rd – 15th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 25, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.


Friday, August 27, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (27 August 2021)


Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern & Western provinces during 27th - 31st August
  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Northern & North Central provinces with max of 142.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 22nd August
  • From 17th- 23rd August: up to  10 km/h from the South westerly were experienced over the island.
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th – 31st August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 85 mm - Southern
  • 75 mm - Central
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 55 mm - North Western
  • 45 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - North Central
From 1st – 7st September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Southern, Western
  • 45 mm - Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
  • 15 mm - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 25th August – 8th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 18, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

Friday, August 20, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (20 August 2021)



Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces during 18th - 24th  August.
  • Very heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central province with max of 152.9 mm in Kandy district on 12th August.
  • From 10th- 16th August: up to  10-15 km/h Westerly & South westerly winds were experienced over the island
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 18th – 24th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Central
  • 45 mm - Uva, Eastern, Northern, Southern
  • 35 mm - North Central
  • 25 mm - North Western
From 25th – 31st August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 45 mm - Southern, Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern
  • 15 mm - North Central, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 17th – 31st August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 11, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.