Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Nuwara Eliya district during 28th Jul-3rd Aug.

  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central province with max of 108 mm in Nuwara Eliya district on 23rd July.

  • From 20th- 26th July: up to  20 km/h from the southwesterly were experienced over the island.

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 50 - 75 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm - Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna
•  5 – 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Moneragala, Badulla, Colombo, Galle, Matara
• 25 – 50 mm  - Gampaha, Kalutara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm  - Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm  - Trincomalee
• 2 mm  - Jaffna

11^th – 20^th July:

• 12 mm - Moneragala 
• 8 mm  - Badulla
• 6 mm  - Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 4 mm  - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm  - Colombo

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28^thJuly– 3^rd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 55 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Southern, North central 
• 35 mm - Central, North western
• 25 mm - Uva, Eastern
• 15 mm - Northern

From 4^th – 10^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - Southern, North central
• 85 mm  - Central, North western
• 75 mm  - Uva, Eastern
• 65 mm  - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 27^th - 31^st Jul; and neutral during 1^st – 10^th Aug.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 21, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 July 2021)

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Southern Sabaragamuwa, North central & Central provinces during 21st-27th July. 

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Eastern province with max of 50.5 mm in Trincomalee district on 18th July.

  • From 13th- 19th July: up to  15 km/h from the southwesterly were experienced over the island. 

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 75 - 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Jaffna
• 50 – 75 mm  - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Jaffna
• 25 – 50 mm  - Gampaha, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalm, Vavuniya
• 10 – 25 mm  - Colombo, Kalutara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm   - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm   -Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm   - Trincomalee
• 2 mm   -Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21^th– 27^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Western, Southern 
• 55 mm - North central, Central
• 45 mm - Uva, North western
• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - Northern

From 28^th July – 3^rd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, North central, Southern
• 35 mm - Central, North western
• 25 mm - Uva
• 15 mm - Northern, Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 20th - 29th Jul; and significantly suppress during 30th Jul – 3rd Aug.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 14, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka and neutral to the west.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  • Showers are predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 16th - 20th Jul; Also during 21st-27th for the same regions.  

  • Dangerously heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Sabaragamuwa, Central & Southern provinces with max of 271 mm in Ratnapura district on 9th July.

  • From 6th- 12th July: up to  15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island. 

• Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 - 150 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura
• 75 – 100 mm  - Gampaha, Kegalle, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Trincomalee
• 50 – 75 mm   - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 25 – 50 mm   - Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 25 – 50 mm  - Jaffana, Polonnaruwa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm   - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm   -Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm   - Trincomalee
• 2 mm   -Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 20^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Southern
• 45 mm - Uva, Central
• 35 mm - North western, North central, Northern
• 25 mm - Eastern

From 21^st – 27^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Southern
• 35mm  - Uva, Central, North western
• 15 mm - North central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 16th - 17th Jul; neutral during 18th – 22nd Jul and slightly suppress during 23rd – 27th Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 7, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •  Very heavy rainfall is predicted in Western province during 9th-10th Jul; In Sabaragamuwa during 11th-14th Jul  & heavy showers in Sabaragamuwa province from 15th-21st Jul.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Western province with  max of 170 mm in Kalutara district on 1st July.

• From 30th  June- 6th July: up to  8 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island

• Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL warmer to the South and North.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 75 – 100 mm - Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Galle, Kegalle
• 50 –75 mm - Matara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Ampara, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa
• 25 – 50 mm - Hambantota, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 5 – 10 mm  - Trincomalee

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale 
• 25 – 50 mm  - Matara, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nueara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 10 – 25 mm  - Hambantota, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Batticaloa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 

21^st – 30^th June:

• 4 mm - Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Hambantota
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 105 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 95 mm  - Southern
• 75 mm  - North western
• 65 mm  - Central
• 55 mm  - Uva
• 35 mm  - North central, Eastern
• 25 mm  - Northern

From 15^th – 21^st July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Western, Southern
• 45 mm - Central
• 35 mm - North western, Uva
• 15 mm - Eastern, North central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 7^th - 11^th Jul; neutral during 12^th – 16^th Jul and slightly suppress during 17^th – 21^st Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 23, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL warmer to the South and North.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (2 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Very heavy rainfall is predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 1st - 7th July. Also, from the 8th- 14th July for the same regions

  •  Showers were experienced in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with a max of 60 mm in Ampara on 24th June

•  From 23rd- 29th June: up to 10-15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island

•  Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL close to neutral to the North and warmer to the South

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm   - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla, Moneragala
•    5 – 10 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
•    2 – 5 mm   - Matara, Hambantota

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi
• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura
• 10 – 25 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 1^st – 7^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Southern
•  95 mm - North western, Central
•  55 mm - Uva, North central
•  45 mm - Eastern
•  35 mm - Northern

From 8^th – 14^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
•  95 mm  - Southern
•  85mm   - North western, Central
•   55 mm - Uva
•   35 mm - North central
•   25 mm - Eastern
•   15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 30^th Jun - 9^th Jul; and slightly enhance during 10^th – 14^th Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 23, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL close to neutral to the North and warmer to the South.