Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (2 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Very heavy rainfall is predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 1st - 7th July. Also, from the 8th- 14th July for the same regions

  •  Showers were experienced in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with a max of 60 mm in Ampara on 24th June

•  From 23rd- 29th June: up to 10-15 km/h from the West and South were experienced over the island

•  Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL close to neutral to the North and warmer to the South

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm   - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla, Moneragala
•    5 – 10 mm - Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle
•    2 – 5 mm   - Matara, Hambantota

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi
• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

Rainfall Deficit

• 25 – 50 mm - Ratnapura
• 10 – 25 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th June:

• 18 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 16 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 14 mm - Badulla, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 12 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Galle, Matara
• 6 mm  - Matale, Jaffna
• 4 mm - Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee

11^th – 20^th June:

• 4 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi
• 2 mm - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badullla, Moneragala, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna 
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 1^st – 7^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 125 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Southern
•  95 mm - North western, Central
•  55 mm - Uva, North central
•  45 mm - Eastern
•  35 mm - Northern

From 8^th – 14^th July: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
•  95 mm  - Southern
•  85mm   - North western, Central
•   55 mm - Uva
•   35 mm - North central
•   25 mm - Eastern
•   15 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 30^th Jun - 9^th Jul; and slightly enhance during 10^th – 14^th Jul.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 23, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late June and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Ocen State

Sea surface temperature anomalies near SL close to neutral to the North and warmer to the South.