Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (30 July 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Nuwara Eliya district during 28th Jul-3rd Aug.

  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central province with max of 108 mm in Nuwara Eliya district on 23rd July.

  • From 20th- 26th July: up to  20 km/h from the southwesterly were experienced over the island.

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 50 - 75 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm - Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna
•  5 – 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Ampara, Batticaloa, Moneragala, Badulla, Colombo, Galle, Matara
• 25 – 50 mm  - Gampaha, Kalutara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy
• 10 – 25 mm  - Puttalam, Kurunegala

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th July:

• 14 mm - Moneragala, Ampara
• 10 mm - Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla
• 8 mm  - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Batticaloa
• 6 mm  - Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi
• 4 mm  - Trincomalee
• 2 mm  - Jaffna

11^th – 20^th July:

• 12 mm - Moneragala 
• 8 mm  - Badulla
• 6 mm  - Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 4 mm  - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
• 2 mm  - Colombo

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28^thJuly– 3^rd August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 55 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Southern, North central 
• 35 mm - Central, North western
• 25 mm - Uva, Eastern
• 15 mm - Northern

From 4^th – 10^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 115 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 105 mm - Southern, North central
• 85 mm  - Central, North western
• 75 mm  - Uva, Eastern
• 65 mm  - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 27^th - 31^st Jul; and neutral during 1^st – 10^th Aug.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 21, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the south of Sri Lanka and neutral to the north.