Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 September 2020)

 

  Highlights                             

  •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm in Jaffna district during 23th - 29th September

  •  Between 16th- 22th September: up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya district 18th Septmenber.

• From 25th September -2th October: up to 10 km/h, North westerly winds were experienced by the southern half of the island.

• 1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th September	Up to 10 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura disrtricts.
17th September	Up to 30 mm in Ratnapura district.
18th September	Up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya district and up to 30 mm in Kandy, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
19th September	Up to 20 mm in Batticaloa district.
20th September	Up to 30 mm in Galle and Matara districts.
21st September	Up to 30 mm in Puttalam district..
22ndSeptember	Up to 30 mm in Puttalam district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25 – 50 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Moneragala, and Batticaloa districts and up to 5 – 10 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya districts. 

Above rainfall average up to 10 – 25 mm in Hambantota and Matara districts; Below rainfall average up to 10 – 25 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts. 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Moneragala, Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 3 mm in Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 3 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^th September – 29^rd September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Jaffna district; up to 65 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 55 mm in Mullaitivu, Mannar and Vavuniya districts; up to 45 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kegalle, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts; up to 35 mm in Galle, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts and up to 25 mm in Hambantota district.  

From 30^th September– 6^th October: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 25 mm in Matara, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara, Matale, Kurunegala and Puttalam districts; and up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.

 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinichchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress during 23^rd -27^th September and shall significantly suppress during 28^th September – 7^th October. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 16, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in Early-September, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 September 2020)

 

  Highlights                             

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm  Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha district during 17th -22nd September

•  Between 10th- 16th September: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Ratnapura districts on 13th September.

•  From  18th- 24th September: up to 15 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
10th September	Up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.
11th September	Up to 20 mm in Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara and Batticaloa districts.
12th September	Up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Matale, Ampara, Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Puttalam and Colombo districts.
13th September	Up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Ratnapura districts.
14th September	Up to 20 mm in Ratnapura district.
15th September	Up to 10 mm in Galle, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Mullaitivu districts.
16th September	Up to 10 mm in Kautara and Ratnapura districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25 – 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Matara and Hambantota districts.   

Above rainfall average up to 25 – 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Trincomalee districts; up to 10 -25 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Ratanapura and Kalutara; Below rainfall average up to 10 – 25 mm in Hambantota, Matara, Kegalle, Kandy, Colomboa and Gampaha districts. 

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Monaragala, Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 3 mm in Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 3 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th September – 23^rd September: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Colombo and Galle; up to 45 mm in Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha and Kegalle; up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Jaffna and Ampara and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.  

From 24^th September– 30^th September: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Jaffna district; up to 55 mm in Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; up to 45 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Moneragala, Matale and Badulla districts; and up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Kunegala, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Hambantota and Matara. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 17^th – 22^th September: Total rainfall up to 100 mm in Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts; up to 75 mm in Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Kurunegala districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Moneragala and Badulla districts and up to 25 mm in Ampara, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Jaffna and Batticaloa districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall remain neutral during 16^th -25^th September and slightly suppressed during 26^th – 30^th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 9, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in Early-September, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 September 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 135 mm  Jaffna district during 17th -23rd September

•  Between 2nd- 8th September: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Badulla and Monaragala districts on 6th September.

•  From  2nd- 8th September: up to 15 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
2nd September	Up to 40 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; up to 30 mm in Puttalam district; up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts, up to 15 mm in Trincomalee, Ampara, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and  up to 10 mm in Galle, Matara, Gampaha. Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.
3rd September	Up to 30 mm in Batticaloa district; up to 15 mm in Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 10 mm in Badulla, Matale, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 5 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Moneragala districts.
4th September	Up to  mm in 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Moneragala districts; up to 5 mm in Jaffna, Mannar, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Badulla districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Matale districts.
5th September	Up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Matale and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Moneragala district; up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee districts; up to 15 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; up to 5 mm in Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Galle district.
6th September	Up to 120 mm in Badulla and Moneragala districts; up to 80 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to  70 mm in Kandy district; up to 60 mm in Matale, Ampara and Trincomalee districts; up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 40 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 30 mm in Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa and Puttalam districts; up to 15 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 10 mm in Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 5 mm in Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.
7th September	Up to 15 mm in Ampara district; up to 10 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Badulla, Batticaloa, Kurunegala, and Matale districts; up to 5 mm in  Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Kegalle, ratnapura, Anuradhapura,  Matara and Galle districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Kalutara and Jaffa districts.
8th September	Up to 60 mm in Gampaha district, up to 50 mm in Colombo, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 20 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala and Ampara districts; up to 10 mm in Badulla, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinichchi and Mullaitivu districts; up to 5 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Mannar districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 – 100 mm in Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 - 75 mm in Matara and Colombo districts; up to 25 -75 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Gampaha districts; Up to 10 – 25 mm in Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts; up to 5 -10 mm in Trincomalee and Jaffna districts.   

Above rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Ampara, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha and Badulla districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Colombo, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Mannar districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Vavuniya, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; Below rainfall average up to 25 – 50 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 10 – 25 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota districts. 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Moneragala, Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 3 mm in Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 3 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 10^th September – 10^th September: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts; up to 45 mm in Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 35 mm in Mannnar, Ampara, Moneragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25 mm in Puttalm, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo, Gampaha, Matara and Hambantota districts.  

From 17^th September– 23^rd September: Total rainfall up to 135 mm in Jaffna district; up to 95 mm in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts; up to 85 mm in Mannar and Vavuniya districts; up to 65 mm in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 55 mm in Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 35 m in Gampaha and Hambantota districts; and up to 25 mm in Kegalle district. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 10^th – 15^th September: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Kalutara and Galle distritcts; and up to 25 mm in Colombo, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Puttalam, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Moneragala, Mannar, Jaffna and Batticaloa districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall remain neutral rainfall during 9^th -18^th September, slightly suppressed during 19^th -23^rd September.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 2, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and south eastern Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in Early-September, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 September 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 85 mm  Galle district during 10th -16th September. 

•   Between 27th August- 2nd September: up to 100 mm of rainfall was recorded in Mannar district on 1st September.

•   From  25th- 31st August: up to 10 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the Southern half island.

•   1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
27th August	Up to up to 40 mm in Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Badulla districts; up to 30 mm in Batticaloa, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 15 mm in Trincoamalee districts; up to 10 mm Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, and Kegalle districts; up to 5.0 mm Puttalam, Gampaha, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 2.5  mm in Galle district.
28th August	Up to 20 mm in Monaragala district; up to 5 mm in Hambantota, Ampara, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Matale districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.
29th August	Up to 15 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; up to 10 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 5 mm in Anuradhapura and Mannar districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Monaragala and Badulla districts.
30th August	Up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 40 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 20 mm in Batticaloa district; up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ampara and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 10 mm in Kilinichchi, Mannar, Puttalam, Matale, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle and Matara districts.
31st August	Up to 60 mm in Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; up to 40 mm in Amapara, Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Matale and Hambantota districts; up to 20 mm in Kegalle and puttalam districts; up to 15 mm in Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Jaffna district.
1st Sep	Up to 100 mm in Mannar district; up to 60 mm in Puttalam district; up to 40 mm in Kilinochchi. Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Batticaloa, Kalutara and Galle; up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 15 mm in Trincomalee, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara distrivts.
2nd Sep	Up to 40 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; up to 30 mm in Puttalam district; up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts, up to 15 mm in Trincomalee, Ampara, Hambantota, Monaragala, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and  up to 10 mm in Galle, Matara, Gampaha. Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 – 100 mm in Monaragala, Mannar, Puttalam, and Ampara districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts; up to 25 -50 mm in Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Jaffna district. 

Above rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Monaragala, Badulla, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale and Kurunegala districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Ratnapura and Trincomalee districts. Below rainfall average up to 25 – 50 mm in Galle district; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Matara, Kalutara and Colombo districts. 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Monaragala, Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 3 mm in Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. Below average rainfall conditions up to 3 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 03^rd September – 09^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Galle district; up to 65 mm in Ratnapura, Matara, Kalutara and Colombo districts; up to 55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 45 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara and Hambantota districsts; up to 35 mm in Puttalam and Batticaloa districts; up to 25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 15 mm in Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts.

From 10^th September– 16^th September: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Galle district; up to 75 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Kegalle districts; up to 55 mm in Kandy, Gampaha, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 45 mm in Ampara district; up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Batticaloa districts; up to 25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts and up to 15 mm in Mannar district. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 3^rd – 8^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matale, Kandy, Kegale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; and up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Puttalam, Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 1^st -5^th September, slightly enhance during 6^th -10^th September and neutralize during 11^th – 15^th September.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 26, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late-august, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.