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Friday, January 26, 2024

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 January 2024)

                     

Highlights          


 • High likelihood of very heavy rainfall (> 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern province,  fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for Uva province and less rainfall (≤ 45 mm) is predicted for the rest during  24 - 30 Jan.
 • Rainfall on 18 & 19 Jan reached peak (164 mm & 64 mm) at Mullaitivu. During the last week, average daily rainfall was 6.1 mm and hydro catchment was 2.8 mm.
 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 15 - 21 Jan reaching up to 5 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 25 - 31 Jan reaching up to 6 m/s.
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong El Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was  in Ratnapura (35.0ºC), Ratmalana (33.9ºC) and Katunayake (33.9ºC).




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 24th January - 30th January:   
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 135 mm - Eastern
  • 75 mm - Uva
  • 45 mm - Central, North Central, Southern
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western
  • ≤ 5 mm - Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 22, 2024 
El Nino Mode has set in according to NOAA since 8th of June, 2023. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-January. El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5above normal to the country in 2nd - 8th January 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.

Interpretation


Monitoring
RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area:Mullaitivu

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th January - 24th January) = 6.1 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 164.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm


Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

Maximum

Minimum

Northern plains

6.7

30.0

23.5

Eastern hills

0.9

25.7

17.4

Eastern plains

6.2

30.3

23.5

Western hills

5.3

28.6

18.0

Western plains

9.3

32.0

24.2

Southern plains

0.4

31.6

23.7











Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Hydro catchment

2.8

46.4

0.0






Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Central province of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (24th January - 30th January), heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern province, fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Uva province, and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western province during 25th January - 31st January.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 24th January - 7th February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.                                                            

Friday, January 19, 2024

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 January 2024)

                    

Highlights          


 • High likelihood of  moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for Sabaragamuwa province and less rainfall ( 20 mm) is predicted for rest of the country during    19 - 25 Jan.
 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.6 mm and hydro catchment was 2.1 mm. Maximum average daily rainfall was 39 mm on 8 Jan and 35 mm on 10 Jan.
 • From 8 - 14 Jan, up to 8 m/s of north easterly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 18 - 24 Jan, up to 5 m/s of  north easterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km). 
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 - 1.0ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was  in Ratnapura (34.6ºC) and Ratmalana (33.7ºC).




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 19th January - 25th January:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  •  20 - 40 mm -  Sabaragamuwa
  •  10 - 20 mm - Uva, Southern, Eastern, Western
  • ≤ 10 mm - Central, North Central, Northern, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 17th - 21st January and significantly suppress the rainfall during 22nd - 31st January for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 15, 2024 
El Nino Mode has set in according to NOAA since 8th of June, 2023. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-January. El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5above normal to the country in 26th December - 1st January 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.

Interpretation


Monitoring
RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following areas: Pannalgama, Lahugala, Vakaneri Wewa.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (10th January - 17th January) = 4.6 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 172.1 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

Maximum

Minimum

Northern plains

2.5

29.9

23.2

Eastern hills

6.3

23.8

16.0

Eastern plains

9.2

29.5

23.0

Western hills

1.6

27.0

16.8

Western plains

0.7

31.1

23.1

Southern plains

5.7

30.2

22.8











Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Hydro catchment

2.1

53.9

0.0





Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Central, Sabaragamuwa, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (19th January - 25th January), moderate rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa province and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain seasonably near normal for the country during 18th January - 24th January.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 17th - 21st January and significantly suppress the rainfall during 22nd - 31st January for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.