Highlights
• High likelihood of heavy rainfall (> 100 mm) is predicted for
Eastern, Northern, North Central provinces and
fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for rest of the country during 3 -
9 Jan. Extreme rainfall is predicted for east coast of Kalmuna to Jaffna.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 15.5 mm and hydro
catchment was 21.1 mm. Rufuskula experienced 215 mm on 30 Dec and
Batuwangala experienced 197 mm on 2 Jan. The rainfall of last week was twice as normal.
• From 25
- 31 Dec, up to 10 m/s of north easterly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 4 - 10 Jan, up to 8 m/s of easterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean
dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Ratnapura (35.4ºC) and Ratmalana (34.0ºC) .
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 3rd January - 9th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 125 mm - Eastern, Northern
- 105 mm - North Central
- 95 mm - Uva
- 85 mm - Southern
- 75 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
- 55 mm - Western, North Western
From 10th
January - 16th January:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- > 135 mm - Eastern, Northern
- 115 mm - North Central
- 95 mm - Uva
- 85 mm - Southern, Central
- 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western
- 65 mm - Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 3rd -
7th January, moderately enhance the rainfall during 8th -
12th January, and near normal the rainfall during 13th-
17th January for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 2, 2024
El Nino Mode has set in according
to NOAA since 8th of June. Equatorial sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean early January.
El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere
winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60%
chance).
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall
over the following areas: Rufuskulam, Batuwangala.
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (27th December - 3rd January) = 15.5 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 169.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern plains |
6.6 |
29.6 |
24.7 |
|
Eastern hills |
25.4 |
23.1 |
19.2 |
|
Eastern plains |
29.7 |
29.0 |
24.4 |
|
Western hills |
13.7 |
26.1 |
19.5 |
|
Western plains |
9.9 |
31.0 |
24.6 |
|
Southern plains |
17.9 |
29.6 |
24.0 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
Hydro catchment |
21.1 |
134.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The
temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Eastern, North
Central, Central, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, and North
Western provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (3rd January - 9th
January),
heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, North Central
provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will
remain seasonably near normal for the country during 4th January - 10th
January.
Teleconnections:
A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th
of June.
MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall
during 3rd - 7th January, moderately enhance the rainfall
during 8th - 12th January, and near normal the rainfall
during 13th- 17th January for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The
precipitation forecast for the January-February-March, 2024 season shows near
normal precipitation.
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