Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the
Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, Central, Uva provinces and less rainfall is
predicted for rest of the country during 1 - 7 July.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.0 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 6.7 mm. Highest average rainfall of 4.7 mm/day
received in Western region.
• From 20 - 26 June, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 30 Jun - 6 Jul, up to 15 m/s of
northwest-westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from
29 - 33ºC and minimum ranged from 23 - 26ºC with a drop in the hills.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 29th June – 5th July:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 95 - Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern
- 85 - Central
- 75 - Uva
- 45 - Northern, North Western, Eastern
- 35 - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 29th June - 13th July for Sri Lanka
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 26, 2023
El Nino Mode has set in now according to NOAA. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean late-June. El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the western half of the country in 6th - 12th June, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas: Ratnapura, Kegalle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (21st June – 28th June) = 2.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 44.1 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern |
0.1 |
33.6 |
26.8 |
|
1.3 |
33.1 |
23.5 |
|
|
Western |
4.7 |
29.5 |
23.8 |
|
Southern |
0.2 |
33.2 |
25.7 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
|
Hydro catchment |
6.7 |
71.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: Northwest-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, and Central provinces driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (29th June – 5th July), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 75 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, Central, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, Eastern, and Uva provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 30th June – 6th July.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 29th June - 13th July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.
