Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (2 June 2023)

       

Highlights          

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North Western, Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country during 1 - 7 May.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.4 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 4.0 mm.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.4 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 4.0 mm.

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from 32- 33ºC and average minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills. 

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 1^st June – 7^th June:

Total rainfall by Provinces:   

• 85 - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 65 - North Western
• 55 - Central
• 35 - Northern, North Central, Uva
• ≤ 25 - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 1^st - 5^th June, near normal the rainfall during 6^th - 10^th June, and slightly increase the rainfall during 11^th - 15^th June for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: May 30, 2023 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean late-May. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. A large majority of the models indicate a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the Western and Eastern half of the country in 2^nd – 8^th May, 2023. 

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:  Monaragala

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (24^th May - 31^th May) = 2.4 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 103.5 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm. 

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern	0.5	34.3	26.9
Eastern	2.2	33.4	23.4
Western	4.6	31.5	24.1
Southern	1.0	33.2	25.9

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 4.0 mm of average rainfall for the last week.

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 107.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and near normal for rest of the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (1^st June – 7^th June), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North Western, and Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, Eastern, North Central, Uva, Southern, and Central provinces during 2^nd June – 8^th June.

Teleconnections: A transition from ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 1^st - 5^th June, near normal the rainfall during 6^th - 10^th June, and slightly increase the rainfall during 11^th - 15^th June for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.