Highlights
• Heavy rainfall is predicted for the
Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is
predicted for the Central and Uva provinces of the country during 8 - 14 June.
• During
the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 3.0 mm and hydro
catchment areas received 6.7 mm. Highest average rainfall 8.1 mm/day received to Western plains.
• From 30 May - 5 June, up to 8 m/s of westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km).During 9 - 15 June, up to 15 m/s of north
westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from
32- 33ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP models: From 8th June – 14th June:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 125 - Sabaragamuwa
- 115 - Southern, Western
- 85 - Central
- 75 - Uva
- 45 - North Western
- 35 - North Central, Eastern
- ≤25 - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the
rainfall during 8th – 22nd June for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: June 8, 2023
Equatorial
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific
Ocean early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with El Niño conditions. A large majority of the models indicate a El Niño to continue into the
winter.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the Western half of the country in 16th – 22nd May, 2023.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Ratnapura, Galle
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31th May - 7th June) = 3.0 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 183.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC)
|
|
Maximum
|
Minimum
|
|
Northern
|
0.0
|
34.0
|
27.7
|
|
Eastern
|
1.6
|
33.3
|
24.1
|
|
Western
|
8.1
|
30.7
|
24.5
|
|
Southern
|
0.1
|
33.0
|
26.2
|
|
Region
|
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm)
|
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm)
|
|
Hydro catchment Areas
|
6.7
|
97.0
|
0.0
|
Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Western, Uva, and Southern provinces and near normal for rest of the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Cyclone: The cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy' originated as a low-pressure area over the east central Arabian Sea and moved north-northeastwards. Then it intensified into a 'very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)' on 7th June and lay centered at 14.8 N, 66.4 E on 9th June, maintaining a 6 kmph wind speed.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (8th June - 14th June), heavy rainfall (≥ 115 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 75 mm) is predicted for the Central and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Eastern, Northern, Uva, and Southern provinces during 9th June - 15th June.
Teleconnections: A large majority of the models indicate a El Niño to continue into the winter.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 8th - 22nd June for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.
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