Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

•  Showers of 75 mm expected in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 24^th - 30^th Mar. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 153 mm max in Galle on 18^thMar.

•  From 16^th  - 22^ndMarch: up to 8 km/h easterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed Neutral around along the Sri Lanka  

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala, Gampaha
• 150 – 200 mm - Kegalle
• 100 – 150 mm - Puttalam, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Hambantota
• 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matara
• 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining district  

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala
• 100 – 200 mm - Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle
• 50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Matale

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.

  

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th March:

• 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
• 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 14 mm - Matara
• 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
• 10 mm - Puttalam
• 8 mm - Matale
• 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
• 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

11^th – 20^th March:

• 12 mm - Kalutara
• 8 mm - Galle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara
• 6 mm - Hambantota, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 4 mm - Matara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Mannar, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Matale, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Uva, Central, Eastern
• 55 mm - North Western
• 35 mm - North Central
• 25 mm - Northern

From 31^st March – 6^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm - Southern, Uva
• 15 mm - North Western, Eastern, Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhanced the rainfall during 23^rd Mar– 1^st Apr and neutral during 2^nd– 6^thApr.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 17, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.  

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near neutral around along the Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

• Showers of 65 mm expected in Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Uva & Southern provinces during 20^th-24^th March.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 10^th - 16^th March.

•  From 9^th - 15^th March: up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•   SST was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern & some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 100 – 150 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 50 – 75 mm - Galle
• 25 – 50 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Moneragala, Hambantota, Matara, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm - Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Badulla
• 5 – 10 mm - Mullaitivu
• 2 – 5 mm - Kilinochchi, Jaffna

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Colombo
• 50 – 100 mm - Gampaha, Kalutara
• 25 – 50 mm - Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Anuradhapura, Ampara, Hambanthota, Moneragala, Puttalam, Mannar

Rainfall Deficit

• 50 – 100 mm - Kurunegala
• 25 – 50 mm - Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Badulla
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

1^st – 10^th March:

• 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
• 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 14 mm - Matara
• 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
• 10 mm - Puttalam
• 8 mm - Matale
• 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
• 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th – 23^rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 65 mm - Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
• 55 mm - Central, Western
• 35 mm - North central, North western
• 25 mm - Northern

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Eastern, Central, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva
• 55 mm - North central
• 45 mm - Northern, North western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral the rainfall during 16^th – 20^th March and significantly enhanced during 21^st– 30^th March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 10, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the Northeast Indian Ocean.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 March 2021)

 

              Highlights                             

•  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern and Southern province during 13th - 16th Mar. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western, Central & Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 108 mm max in Kandy on 6th Mar.

•  From 2th  - 8th March: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  SST was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the North-West Indian Ocean.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 300 – 500 mm -Kegalle, Gampaha
• 200 – 300 mm -Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle 
• 150 – 200 mm -Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Badulla, Moneragala
• 100 – 150 mm -Puttalam, Hambanthota
• 50 – 75 mm -Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm -Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Ampara
• 5 – 10 mm -Batticaloa
• 2 – 5 mm         -Jaffna, Trincomalee
  

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm -Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara
• 100 – 200 mm -Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambanthota, Badulla, Moneragala
• 50 – 100 mm -Anuradhapura, Puttalam   
• 25 – 50 mm -Polonnaruwa, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm -Mannar, Ampara

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm -Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa 

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th February:

• 6 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar
• 4 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 2 mm - Jaffana, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm -Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13th – 16th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm -Southern, Eastern
• 45 mm -Western, Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm -North Central, North Western
• 15 mm -Northern

From 17th – 23rd March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm -Eastern
• 35 mm -Western, Southern, Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm -Northern, North Central, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall Neutral the rainfall during 9^th – 13^rd Mar, slightly Enhanced during 8^th– 17^th Mar and Neutral again during 19^th – 23^rd Mar.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 3, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in early March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 1.5℃ above average in Southern and some parts of the North-West Indian Ocean.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 5 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

•  Showers of 55 mm expected in Eastern province during 4th - 10th  March. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Heavy rainfall was experienced in Western and Southern provinces. Up to 79 mm max in Kalutara on 23rd  Feb. 

•  From 23rd Feb - 1st  March: up to 6 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed near- neutral all along around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Galle
• 10 – 25 mm - Matara, Ratnapura
• 5 – 10 mm - Kurunegala, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle
• 2 – 5 mm - Puttalam, Nuwara Eliya

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 25 – 50 mm - Kalutara, Galle

Rainfall Deficit

• 10 – 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Hambantotta, Kegalle, Ratnapura

There was no rainfall in the week in the remaining districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th February:

• 6 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar
• 4 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
• 2 mm - Jaffana, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle

21^st – 28^th February:

• 6 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura
• 4 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Matara, Kegalle
• 2 mm -Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Hambantota

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 10th March:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Central, North western, Southern, Western, Central, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm - Northern

From 11^th – 17th March:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 45 mm   - Eastern
• 25 mm   - Central, Uva
• 15 mm -Northern, North Central, North western, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 3rd–7th March and Neutral during 8th – 17th  March.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 24, 2021 

Equatorial Eastern and western Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in late-February, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near-neutral all along around Sri Lanka.