Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 March 2021)

 

Highlights                             

•  Showers of 75 mm expected in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces during 24^th - 30^th Mar. A drop in rainfall over the rest of the country.

  •  Dangerously heavy rainfall was experienced in Southern, Western & Sabaragamuwa provinces. Up to 153 mm max in Galle on 18^thMar.

•  From 16^th  - 22^ndMarch: up to 8 km/h easterly winds were experienced around along Sri Lanka.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed Neutral around along the Sri Lanka  

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala, Gampaha
• 150 – 200 mm - Kegalle
• 100 – 150 mm - Puttalam, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara
• 75 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Hambantota
• 50 – 75 mm - Mannar, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matara
• 25 – 50 mm - Mullaitivu, Matale
• 10 – 25 mm - Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining district  

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 200 – 300 mm - Kurunegala
• 100 – 200 mm - Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle
• 50 – 100 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Hambantota
• 25 – 50 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Matara
• 10 – 25 mm - Matale

There was no rainfall throughout the week in the remaining districts.

  

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

1^st – 10^th March:

• 18 mm - Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kurunegala
• 16 mm - Galle, Badulla, Moneragala
• 14 mm - Matara
• 12 mm - Hambanthota, Kandy
• 10 mm - Puttalam
• 8 mm - Matale
• 6 mm - Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara
• 4 mm - Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya

11^th – 20^th March:

• 12 mm - Kalutara
• 8 mm - Galle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Ampara
• 6 mm - Hambantota, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 4 mm - Matara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kandy, Mannar, Batticaloa
• 2 mm - Matale, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Jaffna

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 24^th – 30^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Uva, Central, Eastern
• 55 mm - North Western
• 35 mm - North Central
• 25 mm - Northern

From 31^st March – 6^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 25 mm - Southern, Uva
• 15 mm - North Western, Eastern, Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhanced the rainfall during 23^rd Mar– 1^st Apr and neutral during 2^nd– 6^thApr.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 17, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the west-central to the eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-March and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.  

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed near neutral around along the Sri Lanka.