Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 85 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  in Sabaragamuwa,  Western, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western & Central provinces during 29th  April - 3rd May.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.1 mm and hydro catchment areas have received  up to 6.3 mm on average.

 • From 18th - 24th April, up to 1 - 4 m/s South-westerlies & variable winds were experienced over the Island.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of SL. land temperatures remain around Normal, unlike the sweltering heat in Indian sub-continent.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 27^th – 3^rd May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Western
• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Southern, Northern, North Central
• 55 mm - North Western, Central
• 45 mm - Uva
• 35 mm - Eastern

From 4^th – 10^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 135 mm - Western
• 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Southern
• 105 mm - Central
•  95 mm - North Western, Uva, Northern, North Central
•  65 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29^th April - 6^th May and moderately enhance during 7^th – 11^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 20, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 

Galle

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (19^th - 26^th April) = 4.1 mm

Rmax: 63.9 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	2.5 mm
Eastern	0.8 mm
Western	8.2 mm
Southern Plains	5.8 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.3 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 59 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly (and variable in direction) winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^th April- 3^rd May) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Northern, North Central, North Western and Central provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces and above normal in the northern province during 29^th April - 6^th May. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 29^th April - 6^th May and moderately enhance during 7^th – 11^th May. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 April 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 85 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  for the entire Island during 22nd - 26th  April.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 8.5 mm and hydro catchment areas have received  up to 6.9 mm on average.

 • From 11th - 17th April, up to 2 - 6 m/s South-westerlies  were experienced over the Island

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th – 26^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Northern, North Central
• 65 mm - Southern, Uva, Central, North Western
• 55 mm - Eastern

From 27^th – 3^rd May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Southern, Northern, North Central
• 65 mm - Uva, Central, North Western
• 55 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20^th April - 4^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 

Ratnapura

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11^th - 18^th April) = 8.5 mm

Rmax: 73.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	10.7 mm
Eastern	9.9 mm
Western	6.9 mm
Southern Plains	3.7 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 68.4 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd - 26^th April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire Island.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces and slightly above normal in the northern and eastern provinces during 22^nd – 30^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20^th April - 4^th May. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 50 - 95 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  for the entire Island during 16th - 22nd  of April.

 • During the last week, heavy rainfall has been received in Western, Eastern, Northern Sabaragamuwa, & Northwestern provinces, while other areas received less.

 • From 7th - 13th April, up to 2 - 6 m/s South-westerlies were experienced over the Island.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 22^nd April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm - Northern, North Central
• 75 mm - Southern, Uva, Central, North Western
• 65 mm - Eastern

From 23^rd – 29^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm - Southern 
• 75 mm - Northern, North Central, Uva, Central, North Western
• 65 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 16^th – 25^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 26^th - 30^th April. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces:

Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, and Northwestern

Wind:

South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (16^th – 22^nd April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire Island.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces during 18^th – 26^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 16^th – 25^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 26^th - 30^th April. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall (up to 50 - 100 mm)   is expected for the Southern, Western, Central, Uva Sabaragamuwa & Eastern provinces from 8th - 12th  April.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 6.1 mm and hydro catchment areas have received up to 11.5mm on average.

 • From 28th March - 3rd April, up to 2m/s South-easterlies were experienced. Wind direction is changing NW to SW  during this period.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka and temperature was average for the country last week.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th – 12^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Southern
• 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Central, Uva
• 55 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - North Western, North Central
• 35 mm - Northern

From 13^th – 19^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 25 mm - Uva, Central
• 15 mm - North Western, North Central, Northern, Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral during 6^th – 15^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th April. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 23, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Matara 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29^th March - 5^th April) = 6.1 mm

Rmax: 39.7 mm & Rmin: 0mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	4.7 mm
Eastern	5.2 mm
Western	8.4 mm
Southern Plains	4.7 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 11.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 51.9 mm & Rmin: 0.4 mm. 

Wind:

South-easterly (or variable in direction) winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th – 12^th April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces during 8^th – 16^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall neutral during 6^th – 15^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th April. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.