Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 April 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 55 - 85 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  for the entire Island during 22nd - 26th  April.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 8.5 mm and hydro catchment areas have received  up to 6.9 mm on average.

 • From 11th - 17th April, up to 2 - 6 m/s South-westerlies  were experienced over the Island

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th – 26^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Northern, North Central
• 65 mm - Southern, Uva, Central, North Western
• 55 mm - Eastern

From 27^th – 3^rd May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 75 mm - Southern, Northern, North Central
• 65 mm - Uva, Central, North Western
• 55 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20^th April - 4^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 

Ratnapura

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (11^th - 18^th April) = 8.5 mm

Rmax: 73.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	10.7 mm
Eastern	9.9 mm
Western	6.9 mm
Southern Plains	3.7 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 68.4 mm & Rmin: 0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd - 26^th April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire Island.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces and slightly above normal in the northern and eastern provinces during 22^nd – 30^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 20^th April - 4^th May. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.