Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall (up to 50 - 100 mm)   is expected for the Southern, Western, Central, Uva Sabaragamuwa & Eastern provinces from 8th - 12th  April.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 6.1 mm and hydro catchment areas have received up to 11.5mm on average.

 • From 28th March - 3rd April, up to 2m/s South-easterlies were experienced. Wind direction is changing NW to SW  during this period.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka and temperature was average for the country last week.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th – 12^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Southern
• 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 65 mm - Central, Uva
• 55 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - North Western, North Central
• 35 mm - Northern

From 13^th – 19^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 25 mm - Uva, Central
• 15 mm - North Western, North Central, Northern, Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall neutral during 6^th – 15^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th April. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 23, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Matara 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (29^th March - 5^th April) = 6.1 mm

Rmax: 39.7 mm & Rmin: 0mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	4.7 mm
Eastern	5.2 mm
Western	8.4 mm
Southern Plains	4.7 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 11.5 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 51.9 mm & Rmin: 0.4 mm. 

Wind:

South-easterly (or variable in direction) winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th – 12^th April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and Eastern provinces during 8^th – 16^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall neutral during 6^th – 15^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 16^th - 20^th April. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.