Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 April 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Up to 50 - 95 mm Fairly heavy  rainfall is expected  for the entire Island during 16th - 22nd  of April.

 • During the last week, heavy rainfall has been received in Western, Eastern, Northern Sabaragamuwa, & Northwestern provinces, while other areas received less.

 • From 7th - 13th April, up to 2 - 6 m/s South-westerlies were experienced over the Island.

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 22^nd April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm - Northern, North Central
• 75 mm - Southern, Uva, Central, North Western
• 65 mm - Eastern

From 23^rd – 29^th April: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 85 mm - Southern 
• 75 mm - Northern, North Central, Uva, Central, North Western
• 65 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 16^th – 25^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 26^th - 30^th April. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: April 6, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early April. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the east of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean.  

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces:

Western, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, and Northwestern

Wind:

South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the northern half and near neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (16^th – 22^nd April) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire Island.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly below normal in the central and Uva provinces during 18^th – 26^th April. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).

MJO shall suppress the rainfall during 16^th – 25^thApril; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 26^th - 30^th April. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July season shows below-normal precipitation for the island, but above-normal precipitation for the northern province.