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Friday, April 1, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 April 2022)



 • From 1st - 6th  April, Moderate rainfall (up to 35 mm) is expected  for the Sabaragamuwa, Western & Southern provinces while less is expected other provinces
 • During the last week the Average Daily Rainfall in Sri Lanka was 2.3 mm, with max of 109 mm in Kalutara on 29th March.
 • From 22nd - 28th March, up to 3m/s Southerlies to South-easterlies  were experienced.
 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. A La Niña pattern is prevalent in the Pacific Ocean but not in the Indian Ocean. 



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 1st – 6th April
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 25 mm - Central, North Western, Eastern, North Central, Uva
  • 15 mm - Northern 
From 7th – 13th April
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern
  • 25 mm - North Western, North Central, Uva, Central
  • 15 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall neutral during 1st – 4thApril; slightly enhance the rainfall during 5th - 9th April; and moderately enhance during 10th – 14th April.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: March 23, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-March. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.


During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: 
Morapitiya (Kalutara)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (22nd-29th March) = 2.3 mm
Rmax: 24.4mm & Rmin: 0mm.


Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

2.2 mm


1.1 mm


3.1 mm

Southern Plains

0.04 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas were recorded 2.7 mm of average rainfall for the last week Rmax: 11.6 mm & Rmin: 0 mm.

Southerly to South-easterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week.
The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

During the next week (1st – 6th April) moderate rainfall is predicted for Western, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Northern and provinces during 1st – 9th April
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (June-August 2022).
MJO shall neutral during 1st – 4thApril; slightly enhance the rainfall during 5th - 9th April; and moderately enhance during 10th – 14th April.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the April-May-June season shows above-normal precipitation for the island, while some parts of the southern province remain neutral.

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