Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (29 October 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted in Central, Northern, North Western, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces during 29th Oct - 3rd Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.

• Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 166.7 mm in Anuradhapura district on 20th Oct

 •  From 20th - 27th Oct, up to 25 km/h Westerlies to Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.

 •   Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 28^th October – 3^rd  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 125 mm - Northern
• 115 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 95 mm - Eastern, North Central, Southern, Uva

From 4^th – 10^th  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 115 mm - Central, Northern
• 95 mm - North Central, Southern, Uva
• 85 mm - Eastern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 28^th October – 1^st November giving slightly enhanced rainfall and neutral during 2^nd – 11^th November.   

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: October 20, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the mid-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Eastern, Northern, North-Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western.

Wind: 

Westerly to South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island at the beginning of last week and towards the latter part of the week North Easterly winds were experienced by Eastern Sri Lanka while the rest experienced North Westerly winds. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were in between 1⁰C – 3⁰C in Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (29^th October – 3^rd November) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Northern, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal during 30^th October – 7^th November for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 28^th October – 1^st November giving slightly enhanced rainfall and neutral during 2^nd – 11^th November.   

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (22 October 2021)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island during 22nd - 26th Oct. Greater likelihood of dry tendency is predicted for southern Sri Lanka from Oct to Dec.

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was observed in the Central and Uva provinces with max of 77.3 mm in Nuwara Eliya district on 11th Oct according to ground observations.

 •  From 12th Oct - 19th Oct, up to 25 km/h Westerlies to Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.

 •  Sea surface temperature was observed to be neutral all around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 20^th – 26^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 85 mm - Central, Southern
• 75 mm - North Western, Uva
• 65 mm - North Central
• 55 mm - Eastern, Northern

From 27^th October – 2^nd  November: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 115 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 105 mm - Central, Eastern, Northern, North Central
•  95 mm - Southern, North Western, Uva

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be neutral during 20^th - 24^th Oct and slightly suppressed rainfall during 25^th Oct – 3^rd Nov. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: October 13, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in mid-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed to be neutral all around Sri Lanka. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Central and Uva. 

Wind: 

Westerly to South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal by 1⁰C – 3⁰C in the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd - 26^th October) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal during 22^nd – 30^th October for the whole country. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be neutral during 20^th - 24^th Oct and slightly suppressed rainfall during 25^th Oct – 3^rd Nov. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus predictions has switched from neutral to favoring a dry tendency.  A dry tendency can hurt agricultural production and it adds to farmer difficulties due to the fertilizer bans. However, since this is the wet season the impact will not be as severe. 

However, the bigger impact shall be that it shall reduce the generated hydropower in the coming months. This can hurt the economy due to the scarcity in Foreign Exchange within the country due to the Central Bank regulations.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 October 2021)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Southern, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces during 15th - 19th Oct. Greater likelihood of dry tendency is predicted for southern Sri Lanka from Oct to Dec.

 • Very heavy rainfall was observed in the Northern and North Western provinces with max of 200.3 mm in Jaffna district on 10th Oct according to ground observations.

 •   From 5th Oct - 12th Oct, up to 40 km/h Southwesterlies were experienced across the island

 •   Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ all around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th – 19^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 55 mm - Central, Southern
• 45 mm - Eastern, North Western, Uva
• 35 mm - Northern, North Central

From 20^th – 26^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 85 mm - Central
• 75 mm - Eastern, Southern, North Western, Uva
• 65 mm - Northern, North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly suppressed rainfall during 13^{th –} 27^th October. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: October 6, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the early-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ all around Sri Lanka. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Northern and North-Western provinces and heavy rainfall over the Central, Southern and Western provinces. 

Wind: 

South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal by 1⁰C – 3⁰C in the North Central province while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (15^th - 19^th October) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal for October. During 15^th – 23^rd October, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly suppressed rainfall during 13^{th –} 27^th October. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus predictions has switched from neutral to favoring a dry tendency.  A dry tendency can hurt agricultural production and it adds to farmer difficulties due to the fertilizer bans. However, since this is the wet season the impact will not be as severe. 

However, the bigger impact shall be that it shall reduce the generated hydropower in the coming months. This can hurt the economy due to the scarcity in Foreign Exchange within the country due to the Central Bank regulations.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (8 October 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Eastern, Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces during 8th - 12th Oct. Greater likelihood of dry tendency is predicted for southern Sri Lanka from Oct to Dec.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in Central, North-Central, Uva and Western provinces with max of 142.0 mm in Polonnaruwa district on 2nd Oct according to ground observations.

 • From 28th Sept  - 4th Oct, up to 35 km/h Westerlies and Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ all around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 6^th – 12^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 55 mm - Central, Eastern, Southern
• 45 mm - Northern, North Central, North Western
• 35 mm - Uva

From 13^th – 19^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  95 mm - Central, Southern
•  75 mm - Uva
•  65 mm - North Western
•  55 mm - Eastern
•  45 mm - Northern, North Central 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly suppressed rainfall during 6^{th –} 20^th October. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: September 29, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-September. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ all around Sri Lanka. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Central, North-Central, Uva and Western.

Wind: 

Westerly to South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal by 1⁰C – 3⁰C in Eastern and North Central provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (8^th - 12^th October) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Western provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal for September. During 8^th – 16^th October, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern and Uva provinces.

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly suppressed rainfall during 6^th – 20^th October. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus predictions has switched from neutral to favoring a dry tendency.  A dry tendency can hurt agricultural production and it adds to farmer difficulties due to the fertilizer bans. However, since this is the wet season the impact will not be as severe. 

However, the bigger impact shall be that it shall reduce the generated hydropower in the coming months. This can hurt the economy due to the scarcity in Foreign Exchange within the country due to the Central Bank regulations.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (1 October 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted in Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 1st-5th Oct. Greater likelihood of dry tendency than normal is predicted for southern Sri Lanka from Oct to Dec.

 •  Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces with max of 210.2 mm in Kandy district on 24th Sept.

 •  From 21st - 27th Sept, up to 50 km/h Southwesterlieswere experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the East, South and 1.0 0C to the North, West of Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 29^th  September – 5^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 115 mm - Central, North-Western, Southern
• 105 mm - Uva
•  85 mm - Eastern, North-Central
•  75 mm - Northern

From 6^th – 12^th  October: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
•  95 mm - Western
•  85 mm - Central, Southern
•  75 mm - North-Western, Uva
•  65 mm - Eastern, Northern, North-Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 1^st – 13^th October. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: September 22, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-September. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the East, South and 1.0⁰C to the North, West of Sri Lanka. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Sabaragamuwa and Central.

Wind: 

South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were in between 1⁰C – 3⁰C in Central, Sabaragamuwa, North-Central, North-Western, Southern and Western provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (1^st – 5^th October) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly normal for October. During 1^st – 9^th October, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern, Southern and Uva provinces and low in Central province.

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 1^st – 13^th October. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus predictions have switched from neutral to favoring a dry tendency.  A dry tendency can hurt agricultural production and it adds to farmer difficulties due to the fertilizer bans. However, since this is the wet season the impact will not be as severe. 

However, the bigger impact shall be that it shall reduce the generated hydropower in the coming months. This can hurt the economy due to the scarcity in Foreign Exchange within the country due to the Central Bank regulations.