Highlights
• Heavy
rainfall is predicted in Central, Northern, North Western, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces during 29th Oct - 3rd Nov. Greater likelihood of wet tendency
is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.
• Heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern,
Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces with max of 166.7 mm in Anuradhapura district on 20th Oct
• From 20th
-
27th
Oct, up to 25 km/h Westerlies to Southwesterlies were experienced across the island.
• Sea
surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 28th October – 3rd November:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 125 mm - Northern
- 115 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 95 mm - Eastern, North Central, Southern, Uva
From 4th – 10th November:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 125 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 115 mm - Central, Northern
- 95 mm - North Central, Southern, Uva
- 85 mm - Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be active
during 28th October – 1st November giving slightly
enhanced rainfall and neutral during 2nd – 11th November.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: October 20, 2021
Equatorial
SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the mid-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La
Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface
temperatures were neutral around the entire island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Eastern,
Northern, North-Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western.
Wind:
Westerly to South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island at the beginning of
last week and towards the latter part of the week North Easterly winds were
experienced by Eastern Sri Lanka while the rest experienced North Westerly
winds.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies were in between 10C – 30C in Central, Sabaragamuwa
and Uva provinces while near-neutral for the rest of the country last week,
driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week
(29th October – 3rd November) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central,
Northern, North Western, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly normal during 30th
October – 7th November for the entire island.
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral
are present and a transition from
ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.
MJO shall be active during 28th
October – 1st November giving slightly enhanced
rainfall and
neutral during 2nd – 11th November.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The
precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced probabilities of
above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.
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