Highlights
• Heavy rainfall is predicted for the entire island from 5th - 10th Nov. Greater
likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Nov to Jan.
• Heavy rainfall was experienced in Northern, Central, Sabaragamuwa and
Western provinces with max of 240.0 mm in Kegalle district on 31st Oct.
• From 26th Oct - 2nd Nov, up to 25 km/h Northeasterlies were
experienced across the island.
• Sea surface temperatures were above
0.50C in the Western and Northern seas
while neutral around the rest of the island.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 4th – 10th November:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 145 mm - Central, Northern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 135 mm - Eastern, Uva
- 125 mm - Southern
From 11th – 17th November:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 125 mm - Northern
- 115 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 105 mm - Central
- 95 mm - North Central, Southern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO
shall be active during 4th – 8th November
giving slightly enhanced
rainfall, 14th – 18th November giving slightly
suppressed rainfall and neutral during 9th – 13th
November.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: October 27, 2021
Equatorial
SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and
were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-October. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La
Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea
surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western and Northern
seas while neutral around the
rest of the island.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Central,
Northern, Sabaragamuwa and Western.
Wind:
North Easterly winds prevailed in
the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last
week, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week
(5th – 10th November) heavy rainfall is predicted for the
entire island.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly normal during 6th – 13th November for the entire island.
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are
present and a transition
from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.
MJO shall be active during 4th
– 8th November giving slightly enhanced rainfall, 14th –
18th November giving slightly suppressed rainfall and
neutral during 9th – 13th November.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the Nov-Jan season show enhanced
probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.
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