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Friday, December 31, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (31 December 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 1st Jan – 4th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar.
 • Dry conditions with below average rainfall was observed in the entire island last week except for fairly heavy rainfall in the Southern province with max of 94.5 mm in Matara district on 22nd Dec.
 •  From 21st Dec - 28th Dec, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 1st – 4th  January 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 105 mm - Eastern
  •  95 mm - Uva
  •  75 mm - Northern, North Central
  •  65 mm - Southern
  •  55 mm - Central
  •  45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  •  35 mm - North Western, Western
From 5th – 11th  January
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 55 mm - Southern
  • 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - Central, North Central, Western 
  • 25 mm - Northern, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 1st – 12th January giving significantly suppressed rainfall from 1st – 2nd January and sightly suppressed rainfall from 3rd – 12th January for the entire island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 22, 2021 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in the mid-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Southern. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C - 30C above neutral for some parts of Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (1st– 4th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 1st January – 8th January for the entire island.
Teleconnections:
La Niña - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 1st – 12th January giving significantly suppressed rainfall from 1st – 2nd January and sightly suppressed rainfall from 3rd – 12th January for the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, December 24, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (24 December 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 25th Dec – 28th Dec. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar
 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces with max of 95.3 mm in Hambantota district on 16th Dec
 •  From 14th Dec - 21st Dec, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island. 
 • Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C around the entire island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th – 28th  December 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 95 mm - Eastern
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 55 mm - North Central
  • 35 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
  • 15 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa
From 29th December – 4th  January
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 135 mm - Eastern
  • 105 mm - North Central, Uva
  •  85 mm - Southern
  •  75 mm - Central
  •  65 mm - Northern, Sabaragamuwa
  •  35 mm - North Western
  •  25 mm - Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 25th December –5th January 2022 giving severely suppressed rainfall from 25th–26th December, significantly suppressed rainfall from 27th – 31st December and sightly suppressed rainfall from 1st – 5th January 2022 for the entire island.


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 15, 2021 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in mid-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicate very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C around the entire island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C - 30C above neutral for some parts of Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (25th December – 28th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 25th December – 31st December for the entire island. 
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 25th December – 5th January 2022 giving severely suppressed rainfall from 25th – 26th December, significantly suppressed rainfall from 27th – 31st December, and sightly suppressed rainfall from 1st – 5th January 2022 for the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Feb-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, December 17, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (17 December 2021)

 


Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, North Central, Northern,and Southern provinces from 18th Dec – 22nd Dec.Highest rainfall for the period is predicted for Jaffna on the 18th Dec.
 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Western and Uva provinces with max of 179 mm in Badulla district on 12th Dec.
 •  From 8th Dec - 15th Dec, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 16th November – 22nd  December 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 75 mm - Uva
  • 65 mm - North Central
  • 55 mm - Northern, Southern
  • 45 mm - Central, North Western
  • 35 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 25 mm - Western
From 23rd – 29th  December
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 55 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 45 mm - Southern, North Central
  • 35 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 18th – 30th Dec giving severely suppressed rainfall from 18th – 25th Dec and significantly suppressed rainfall from 26th – 30th Dec for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 8, 2021 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in early-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicate very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Western and Uva. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were neutral for some parts of Southern, Uva and Eastern provinces while 10C-30C above neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (18th December – 22nd December) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, North Central, Northern, Southern provinces. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 18th December – 26th December for the entire island. 
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
MJO shall be active during 18th – 30th Dec giving severely suppressed rainfall from 18th – 25th Dec and significantly suppressed rainfall from 26th – 30th Dec for the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Feb-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, December 10, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 December 2021)

 


Highlights                             

• Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern, North Central and Southern provinces from 11th Dec - 14th Dec. 
 Heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Uva provinces with max of 128.5 mm in Hambantota district on 2nd Dec.
 From 29th Nov - 6th Dec, up to 40 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
• Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 8th – 14th  December: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • >135 mm - Northern
  •  125 mm - Eastern
  •  105 mm - North Central, Southern
  •   95 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western
  •   85 mm - Central
From 15th – 21st  December
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • >135 mm - Eastern, Northern
  •  135 mm - North Central
  •  115 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 11th December – 22nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: December 1, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the early-December. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western seas and neutral around the rest of the Island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Uva. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C-30C above neutral in the Central, Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Uva provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (11th December – 14th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern, North Central and Southern provinces.
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 11th December – 18th December for the entire island. 
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.
MJO shall be active during 11th December – 22nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall for the entire island.
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Friday, December 3, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (3 December 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern provinces from 4th Dec - 7th Dec. 
 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with max of 219.0 mm in Ratnapura district on 24th Nov.
 • From 23rd Nov - 30th Nov, up to 35 km/h Southeasterlies and Northeasterlies were experienced across the island
 •  Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 4th – 7th  December 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 115 mm - Northern
  •  85 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
  •  75 mm - Central, Eastern, North Central, Southern
  •  65 mm - Uva
From 8th – 14th  December
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • >135 mm - Eastern, Northern, North Central
  •  135 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
  •  125 mm - Western
  •  115 mm - Southern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active during 4th December – 15th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall for the entire island. Rainfall will be slightly more suppressed in southern Sri Lanka than in the rest of the country from 4th December – 5th December. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: November 24, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-November. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Sabaragamuwa Province. 
Wind: 
 Southeasterly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (4th December – 7th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern province.
Temperature:
The temperature remains normal during 4th December – 11th December for the entire island. 
Teleconnections:
La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.
MJO shall be active during 4th December – 15th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall for the entire island. Rainfall will be slightly more suppressed in southern Sri Lanka than in the rest of the country from 4th December – 5th December. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.