Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (24 December 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 25th Dec – 28th Dec. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan - Mar

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces with max of 95.3 mm in Hambantota district on 16th Dec

 •  From 14th Dec - 21st Dec, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island. 

 • Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C around the entire island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 25^th – 28^th  December:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 95 mm - Eastern
• 65 mm - Uva
• 55 mm - North Central
• 35 mm - Central, Northern, Southern
• 15 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa

From 29^th December – 4^th  January: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 135 mm - Eastern
• 105 mm - North Central, Uva
•  85 mm - Southern
•  75 mm - Central
•  65 mm - Northern, Sabaragamuwa
•  35 mm - North Western
•  25 mm - Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 25^th December –5^th January 2022 giving severely suppressed rainfall from 25^th–26^th December, significantly suppressed rainfall from 27^th – 31^st December and sightly suppressed rainfall from 1^st – 5^th January 2022 for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: December 15, 2021 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean in mid-December. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts indicate very high probabilities of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, weakening gradually, and likely to dissipate in Mar-May 2022. 

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were above 0.5⁰C around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Northern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C - 3⁰C above neutral for some parts of Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (25^th December – 28^th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains normal during 25^th December – 31^st December for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 25^th December – 5^th January 2022 giving severely suppressed rainfall from 25^th – 26^th December, significantly suppressed rainfall from 27^th – 31^st December, and sightly suppressed rainfall from 1^st – 5^th January 2022 for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Feb-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.