Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (3 December 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern provinces from 4th Dec - 7th Dec. 

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with max of 219.0 mm in Ratnapura district on 24th Nov.

 • From 23rd Nov - 30th Nov, up to 35 km/h Southeasterlies and Northeasterlies were experienced across the island

 •  Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 4^th – 7^th  December:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 115 mm - Northern
•  85 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Western
•  75 mm - Central, Eastern, North Central, Southern
•  65 mm - Uva

From 8^th – 14^th  December: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• >135 mm - Eastern, Northern, North Central
•  135 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva
•  125 mm - Western
•  115 mm - Southern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 4^th December – 15^th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall for the entire island. Rainfall will be slightly more suppressed in southern Sri Lanka than in the rest of the country from 4^th December – 5^th December. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: November 24, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and were above average in the western Pacific Ocean in the late-November. A large majority of the model forecasts predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months and La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were above 1⁰C around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Sabaragamuwa Province. 

Wind: 

 Southeasterly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (4^th December – 7^th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains normal during 4^th December – 11^th December for the entire island. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 4^th December – 15^th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall for the entire island. Rainfall will be slightly more suppressed in southern Sri Lanka than in the rest of the country from 4^th December – 5^th December. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.