Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 August 2022)

 

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for central and sabaragamuwa provinces and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 26th - 31st August.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 6.8 mm on average.

 • From 16th- 22nd August, westerly to south-westerly  of 10m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of south-westerlies expected for the next week.

 •  Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and south of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 25^th August – 31^st August:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• > 100 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
•    95 mm - Southern, Western, Uva
•    85 mm - Eastern
•    75 mm - North-central, North-western, Northern

From 1^st September – 7^th September:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 85 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central
• 75 mm - Western
• 65 mm - Southern, Uva, North-western
• 55 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - North-central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th August - 8^th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: August 17, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and south of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya 

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17^th Aug - 24^th Aug) = 1.9 mm

Rmax: 29.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	2.4 mm
Eastern	1.3 mm
Western	2.8 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 96.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (26^th - 31^st August) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.

Temperature:

The temperature will remain slightly above normal to the East and North of the island during 26^th August – 1^st September. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25^th August - 8^th September. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 August 2022)

    

Highlights          

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 19th - 23rd August.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 0.9 mm on average.

 • From 8th- 14th August, south-westerlies of 15m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.

 •  Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th August – 23^rd August

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 55 mm - Central
• 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 35 mm - North-central, North-western, Western, Eastern, Uva
• 25 mm - Southern, Northern

From 24^th August – 30^th August:

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• > 100 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, Western
•    95 mm - Uva, North-western
•    85 mm - North-central, Eastern
•    55 mm - Northern 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near-neutral during 17^th – 26^th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27^th – 31^st August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: August 10, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Randenigala

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (9^th Aug - 16^th Aug) = 0.4 mm

Rmax: 15.8 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.4 mm
Eastern	0.6 mm
Western	0.1 mm
Southern Plains	0.0 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 0.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week

Rmax: 55.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

South-westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (19^th - 23^rd August) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 19^th – 24^th August. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near-neutral during 17^th – 26^th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27^th – 31^st August. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 August 2022)

   

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, North-central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts during 5th - 11th August.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 15 mm on average.

 • From 2nd- 8th August, westerlies of 20 - 30 m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 6 m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.

 •  Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 11^th August – 17^th August:  

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 75 mm - Northern
• 35 mm - Central
• 25 mm - North-central, Sabaragamuwa
• 15 mm - Western, Eastern, North-western, Uva, Southern

From 18^th August – 24^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 85 mm - Northern
• 75 mm - Central
• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Uva
• 55 mm - Southern, Western, North-central
• 45 mm - Eastern, North-western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near-neutral for Sri Lanka during 11^th – 25^th August.  

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: August 3, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and east of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (3^rd Aug - 9^th Aug) = 2.9 mm

Rmax: 41.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	0.0 mm
Eastern	0.1 mm
Western	6.7 mm
Southern Plains	0.1 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 15.0 mm of average rainfall for the last week.

Rmax: 121.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the east and north of the island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (12^th - 17^th August) moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, North-central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 12^th – 18^th August. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near-neutral for Sri Lanka during 11^th – 25^th August.  

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (5 August 2022)

 

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa province, Nuwara Eliya & Kandy districts; fairly heavy rainfall in Western and North-western provinces, Galle & Matara districts during 5 - 11 Aug. Landslide warnings have been issued for seven districts for next few days.

 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 7.5 mm. People had been affected due to floods following heavy rains experienced in the past few days.

 • From 25th- 31st July, up to 10 m/s of westerlies to south-westerlies were experienced over the island. Extremely high speed westerlies are predicted for the coming week

 • Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

7-day prediction: 
IMD GFS Models

From 5^th August – 11^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 50 - 100mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, Western, North-western
• < 50mm - Uva, Eastern, North-central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near-neutral during 3^rd - 12^th August; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 13^th – 17^th August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 27, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in late-July. The tropical Pacific Sea surface temperatures show a classical La Niña pattern. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (24^th July - 31^st July) = 7.5 mm

Rmax: 69.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for the Last 8 days
Northern Plains	5.9 mm
Eastern	9.9 mm
Western	5.8 mm
Southern Plains	15.5 mm

The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 12.0 mm of average rainfall for the last weekRmax: 105.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 

Wind:

Westerly to south-westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the north half of the island, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (5^th - 11^th August) heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa province and Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Western and North-western provinces and Galle and Matara districts. 

Temperature:

 The temperature remains above normal in the Eastern and Uva provinces during 5^th – 11^th August. 

Teleconnections:

La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

MJO shall near-neutral during 3^rd - 12^th August; and slightly enhance the rainfall during 13^th – 17^th August.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.