Phone:(+94)81-2376746,4922992   E-mail:climate@sltnet.lk     Website: http://www.climate.lk

Friday, August 26, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (26 August 2022)

 


Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for central and sabaragamuwa provinces and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 26th - 31st August.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 6.8 mm on average.
 • From 16th- 22nd August, westerly to south-westerly  of 10m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of south-westerlies expected for the next week.
 •  Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north and south of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th August – 31st August:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • > 100 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa
  •    95 mm - Southern, Western, Uva
  •    85 mm - Eastern
  •    75 mm - North-central, North-western, Northern
From 1st September – 7th September:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 85 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central
  • 75 mm - Western
  • 65 mm - Southern, Uva, North-western
  • 55 mm - Eastern
  • 45 mm - North-central, Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th August - 8th September. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 17, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5 to the north and south of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya 
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (17th Aug - 24th Aug) = 1.9 mm
Rmax: 29.3 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

2.4 mm

Eastern

1.3 mm

Western

2.8 mm

Southern Plains

0.0 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 6.8 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 96.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 
Wind:
Westerly to South-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (26th - 31st August) heavy rainfall is predicted for Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature will remain slightly above normal to the East and North of the island during 26th August – 1st September
Teleconnections:
La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th August - 8th September. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country. 

No comments:

Post a Comment