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Friday, August 12, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (12 August 2022)

   

Highlights          

 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, North-central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts during 5th - 11th August.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 2.9 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 15 mm on average.
 • From 2nd- 8th August, westerlies of 20 - 30 m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 6 m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.
 •  Sea surface temperature was above 0.5℃ to the north and East of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 11th August – 17th August 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 75 mm - Northern
  • 35 mm - Central
  • 25 mm - North-central, Sabaragamuwa
  • 15 mm - Western, Eastern, North-western, Uva, Southern
From 18th August – 24th August
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 85 mm - Northern
  • 75 mm - Central
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Uva
  • 55 mm - Southern, Western, North-central
  • 45 mm - Eastern, North-western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall near-neutral for Sri Lanka during 11th – 25th August.  


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 3, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5 to the north and east of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (3rd Aug - 9th Aug) = 2.9 mm
Rmax: 41.7 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.0 mm

Eastern

0.1 mm

Western

6.7 mm

Southern Plains

0.1 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 15.0 mm of average rainfall for the last week.
Rmax: 121.0 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 
Wind:
Westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were below normal for the east and north of the island, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (12th - 17th August) moderate rainfall is predicted for Central, North-central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is expected for Jaffna districts. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 12th – 18th August
Teleconnections:
La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near-neutral for Sri Lanka during 11th – 25th August.  

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the southern half of the country, while the remaining areas are more likely to experience near-normal precipitation.

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