Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less
rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 19th - 23rd August.
• During the last week, the average daily
rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 0.9
mm on average.
• From 8th- 14th August, south-westerlies of 15m/s
winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of
south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near
normal.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 17th August
– 23rd August
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 55 mm - Central
- 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 35 mm - North-central, North-western, Western, Eastern, Uva
- 25 mm - Southern, Northern
From 24th August
– 30th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- > 100 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, Western
- 95 mm - Uva, North-western
- 85 mm - North-central, Eastern
- 55 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO
shall near-neutral during 17th – 26th
August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31st
August.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 10, 2022
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea
surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian
Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a
La Niña.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks,
there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Randenigala
Daily Average
Rainfall in the Met stations for previous
week of (9th Aug - 16th Aug) = 0.4 mm
Rmax: 15.8 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm
Region | Average rainfall for the Last 8 days |
Northern Plains | 0.4 mm |
Eastern | 0.6 mm |
Western | 0.1 mm |
Southern Plains | 0.0 mm |
The Hydro Catchment
Areas recorded 0.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 55.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm.
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea
area and around the island last week.
Temperature:
The temperature
anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm
SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (19th - 23rd August) fairly
heavy rainfall
is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the
rest of the country.
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in
the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 19th – 24th August.
Teleconnections:
La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with
the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer
(July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall
and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near-neutral during 17th
– 26th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th
– 31st August.
Seasonal Precipitation:
The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November
season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country.
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