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Friday, August 19, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 August 2022)

    

Highlights          

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country during 19th - 23rd August.
 • During the last week, the average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment areas have received 0.9 mm on average.
 • From 8th- 14th August, south-westerlies of 15m/s winds were experienced at 850 mb level over the island. Up to 10m/s of south-westerlies can be expected for the next week.
 •  Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5℃ to the north of Sri Lanka. Land surface temperature remained near normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 17th August – 23rd August
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 55 mm - Central
  • 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 35 mm - North-central, North-western, Western, Eastern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Southern, Northern
From 24th August – 30th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • > 100 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Central, Southern, Western
  •    95 mm - Uva, North-western
  •    85 mm - North-central, Eastern
  •    55 mm - Northern 
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall near-neutral during 17th – 26th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31st August. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 10, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean in early-August. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. A large majority of the models indicate, a La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July - September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was above 0.5 to the north of Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean, a classical negative Indian Ocean Dipole prevails as is typical during a La Niña


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Randenigala
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (9th Aug - 16th Aug) = 0.4 mm
Rmax: 15.8 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm

Region

Average rainfall for the Last 8 days

Northern Plains

0.4 mm

Eastern

0.6 mm

Western

0.1 mm

Southern Plains

0.0 mm


The Hydro Catchment Areas recorded 0.9 mm of average rainfall for the last week
Rmax: 55.5 mm & Rmin: 0.0 mm. 
Wind:
South-westerly prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were above normal for the Sabaragamuwa province, driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (19th - 23rd August) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Central province and less rainfall is expected for the rest of the country. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Eastern, Northern, North-central and Uva provinces during 19th – 24th August
Teleconnections:
La Niña - La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022.
MJO shall near-neutral during 17th – 26th August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 27th – 31st August. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November season shows a higher tendency for below-normal precipitation for the country. 

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