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Friday, September 27, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 26 September 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 25 – 30 Sep.
·  Between 17 - 24 Sep: up to 200 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Puttalam and Gampaha districts on the 23rd.
·  From 17 – 23 Sep: up to 36 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
·  Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

 



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On September 17th, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Kurunegala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Kandy, and Ratnapura districts.  On the 18th, Puttalam, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Jaffna, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo, districts up to 20 mm. On the 19th, Galle district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Monaragala, and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 20th, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm. On the 21sKandy and Badulla districts received up to 20 mm. On the 22nd, Galle and Matara districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 23rd, Puttalam and Gampaha districts received up to 200 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 160 mm; Kegalle, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Ratnapura and Matara  district up to 80 mm; Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm. On the 24th Gampaha district received up to 100 mm of rainfall; Colombo and Kalutara districts up to 70 mm; Kegalle district up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Kurunegala, and Galle districts up to 50 mm; Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Hambantota and Badulla districts up to 20 mm.


Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Gampaha district; up to 200-300 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150-200 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts. Above-average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, and Kalutara districts; up to 100-200 mm Kurunegala, Galle, and Matara districts; and up to 50-100 mm Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During August Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.



Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 25th Sep – 1st Oct: Total rainfall more than  135 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Puttalam and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 95-105 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy and Batticaloa districts.

From 2nd – 8th Oct: Total rainfall up to 135 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 115-125 mm in Matara, Gampaha and Puttalam districts; and up to 95-105 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle and Hambantota districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

 25th  of Sep: Not Available

 26th of  Sep: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 25th – 30th Sep: Total rainfall up to 150 mm is expected in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 100 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, and Colombo districts; and up to 75 mm in rest of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall of Sri Lanka. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September. Patterns in the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Friday, September 20, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 19 September 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 
·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kalutara and Galle districts during 18 – 23 Sep.
·  Between 10 - 15 Sep: up to 140 mm of rainfalls were recorded Hambantota district on the 14th.
·  From 9 – 15 Sep: up to 54 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
·  0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

 



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On September 10th, Galle and Matara districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm; and Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.  On the 11th, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Matara districts up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Hambantota, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Nuwara Eliya, Ampara, Kandy and Kegalle districts up to 30 mm; and Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Matale districts up to 20 mm. On the 12th, Jaffna, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; and Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kandy and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 13th, Badulla and Ampara districts received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Jaffna and Mullaitivu districts up to 50 mm; Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Monaragala, Matale and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 14th, Hambantota district received up to 140 mm of rainfall; Monaragala district up to 100 mm; Matara district up to 90 mm; Ratnapura, Badulla, Galle and Ampara districts up to 60 mm; Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Colombo districts up to 50 mm; Gampaha, Trincomalee and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. On the 15th Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts received up to 120 mm of rainfall; Mannar, Mullaitivu, Kegalle and Galle districts up to 70 mm; Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Matara districts up to 60 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts; up to 150-200 mm Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 100-150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Badulla and Ampara districts. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matra, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 50-100 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara and Batticaloa. Below average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.



Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 18th – 24th Sep: Total rainfall up to 135 mm in Galle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Hambantota district; and up to 85-95 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.

From 25th Sep – 1st Oct: Total rainfall up to 105 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 85-95 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 65-75 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

 18th  of Sep: Not Available

 19th of  Sep: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 


From 18th – 23rd Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall not have an impact in the rainfall of Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: September 12, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during August. Patterns in the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Monday, September 16, 2019

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 12 September 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

·  The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts during 11 – 16 Sep.
·  Between 4 - 9 Sep: up to 50 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Monaragala and Badulla districts on the 9th.
·  From 3 – 9 Sep: up to 36 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
·  1 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

 



Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On September 4th, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall.  On the 5th, Kurunegala district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Hambantota district up to 20 mm. On the 6th, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Colombo, Kalutara, Matara and Badulla districts up to 5 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th and 8th. On the 9th, Monaragala and Badulla districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Galle, Matara and Kandy district up to 10 mm. 

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10-25 mm Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Kandy, and Ampara Districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in southern regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10- 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha and Ratnapura districts

Monthly Monitoring: During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.



Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 11th – 17th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Colombo, Ratnapura, and Matara districts; up to 65-75 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.


From 18th – 24th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Gampaha, Ratnapura, and Galle districts; up to 65-75 mm in Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Galle, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, and Badulla districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

 11th  of Sep: Not Available

 12th of  Sep: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 


From 11th – 16th Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an impact in the following 5 days

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.

Indian Ocean State
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.


Friday, September 6, 2019

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 05, September 2019

                                                      Highlights                                

                                 

The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts during 4– 9 Sep
Between 27 Aug - 3 Sep: up to 175 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Colombo and Ratnapura districts on the 29th.

From 27 Aug – 2 Sep: up to 36 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire island.

0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring: On August 27th, Galle and Ratnapura districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Matara districts up to 20 mm.  On the 28th, Hambantota, Galle and Matara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara district up to 20 mm. On the 29th, Colombo and Ratnapura districts received up to 175 mm of rainfall; Gampaha, Kegalle, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 120 mm; Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts up to 90 mm; Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Jaffna, and Puttalam districts up to 30 mm; and Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, and Ampara districts up to 20 mm. On the 30th, Badulla district received up to 15 mm of rainfall; and Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Kalutara district up to 10 mm. On the 31st, Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Matale, Galle, Matara, and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On September 1st, Colombo, Monaragala and Hambantota districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Nuwara Eliya and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm. On the 2nd, Batticaloa, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 15 mm of rainfall. On the 3rd, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle districts received up to 15 mm of rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200-300 mm in Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 150-200 mm in Galle and Kegalle districts; up to 100-150 mm Gampaha, Galle and Matara districts: and up to 75-100 mm Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts. Above average rainfall up to 100-200 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 50-100 mm in Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and southern regions of Monaragala districts.  Below-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and central regions of Monaragala district.

Monthly Monitoring: During August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.




Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 


From 4th – 10th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Gampaha districts; up to 65-75 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Colombo and Kalutara districts.

From 11th – 17th Sep: Total rainfall up to 65 mm Gampaha, Ratnapura, and Kegalle districts; and up to 45-55 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts.

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:

 4th  of Sep: Not Available

 5th of  Sep: Not Available 

IRI Model Forecast: 


From 4th – 9th Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 25 mm in most parts of the island.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts through winter.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.