Highlights
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall
in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts during 11 – 16 Sep.
· The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall
in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts during 11 – 16 Sep.
· Between 4 - 9 Sep: up to 50 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Monaragala
and Badulla districts on the 9th.
· From 3 – 9 Sep: up to 36 km/h, westerly winds were experienced by the entire
island.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring: On September 4th, Galle, Kalutara,
Colombo, Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of
rainfall. On the 5th, Kurunegala
district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle,
Ratnapura and Hambantota district up to 20 mm. On the 6th, Kegalle,
Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Ampara districts received up to 10 mm
of rainfall; and Colombo, Kalutara, Matara and Badulla districts up to 5 mm. No
significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 7th
and 8th. On the 9th, Monaragala and Badulla districts
received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Kalutara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Galle,
Matara and Kandy district up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala,
Kalutara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 10-25
mm Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Kandy, and Ampara
Districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in southern regions of Badulla
and Monaragala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm in Kandy,
Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10- 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Anuradhapura,
Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha and Ratnapura
districts
Monthly Monitoring: During
August – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Gampaha,
Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, and Ratnapura districts; up to 240 mm
in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale,
Monaragala and Hambantota; and up to 120 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu,
Mannat, Vavuniya, Ampara, and Batticaloa. Below-average rainfall conditions up
to 180 mm were experienced Trincomalee and most parts of Badulla district. The
CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm of total rainfall in
Ratnapura district; up to 500 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara,
Kegalle, and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and
Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala
districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 11th
– 17th Sep: Total rainfall up to 85 mm on Colombo, Ratnapura, and Matara
districts; up to 65-75 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Hambantota districts; and up
to 55-65 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts.
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
11th of Sep: Not Available
12th of Sep: Not Available
12th of Sep: Not Available
From 11th
– 16th Sep: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala districts;
and up to 50 mm in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have an impact in the following 5 days.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: August 19, 2019
The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended, as SSTs
in the east-central Pacific cooled to ENSO-neutral levels during July. Patterns
in most atmospheric variables also are showing ENSO-neutral conditions.
Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, but
with higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook, no
longer carrying an El Niño advisory, generally agrees with the model forecasts
through winter.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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