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Friday, August 27, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (27 August 2021)


Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern & Western provinces during 27th - 31st August
  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Northern & North Central provinces with max of 142.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 22nd August
  • From 17th- 23rd August: up to  10 km/h from the South westerly were experienced over the island.
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th – 31st August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 85 mm - Southern
  • 75 mm - Central
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 55 mm - North Western
  • 45 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - North Central
From 1st – 7st September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Southern, Western
  • 45 mm - Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
  • 15 mm - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 25th August – 8th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 18, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

Friday, August 20, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (20 August 2021)



Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces during 18th - 24th  August.
  • Very heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central province with max of 152.9 mm in Kandy district on 12th August.
  • From 10th- 16th August: up to  10-15 km/h Westerly & South westerly winds were experienced over the island
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 18th – 24th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Central
  • 45 mm - Uva, Eastern, Northern, Southern
  • 35 mm - North Central
  • 25 mm - North Western
From 25th – 31st August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 45 mm - Southern, Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern
  • 15 mm - North Central, North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 17th – 31st August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 11, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

Friday, August 13, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (13 August 2021)

 


Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Central & Central provinces during 13th -17th  August.
  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central & Sabaragamuwa provinces with maximum of 133.5 mm in Kegalle district on 8th August.
  • From 3rd- 9th August: up to  15 km/h from the Southwesterly were experienced over the island.  
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 100 -150 mm - Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa
  • 50 -7 5 mm    - Kandy, Matale
  • 25 -50 mm     - Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam
  • 10 - 25 mm   - Anuradhapura, Galle, Kalutara, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Ratnapura, Trincomalee, Jaffna
  • 5 – 10 mm    - Matara, Hambantota, Vavuniya

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 - 200 mm - Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa
  • 50 - 100 mm   - Matale, Polonnaruwa
  • 25 - 50 mm    - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya
  • 10 - 25 mm    - Anuradhapura, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Ratnapura


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 31st July:
  • 4 mm  - Ampara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kegalle, Monaragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya
  • 2 mm - Anuradhapura, Galle, Hambantota, Kandy, Kurunegala, Mannar, Matale, Matara, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Vavuniya

1st – 10th August:
  • 14 mm - Ampara
  • 12 mm - Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa
  • 8 mm   - Batticaloa, Matale
  • 6 mm   - Kandy
  • 4 mm   - Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Ratnapura
  • 2 mm   - Anuradhapura, Galle, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kalutara, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matara, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Vavuniya

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 11th – 17th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 75 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Central
  • 65 mm - North Western, Southern
  • 55 mm - Uva, Eastern, Northern
From 18th – 24th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 65 mm - Central, North Central, Northern, North Western, Southern
  • 45 mm - Uva, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 10th – 24th August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 4, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

Friday, August 6, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (6 August 2021)

  

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northcentral, Central & Southern provinces during 6th -9th  Aug.
  • Fairly heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Western, Central & Sabaragamuwa provinces with max of 54 mm in Ratnapura district on 27th July.
  • From 26th July - 1st August: up to  15 km/h from the South westerly were experienced over the island.
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Monitoring

Rainfall

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 10 - 25 mm - Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee
  • 5 – 10 mm  - Jaffna, Mannar, Kalutara, Moneragala, Badulla
  • 2 – 5 mm    - Killinochchi, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Ampara

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts:
Rainfall Excess
  • 10 - 25 mm - Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa


Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


11th – 20th July:
  • 12 mm  - Moneragala 
  • 8 mm    - Badulla
  • 6 mm    - Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 4 mm   - Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kalutara, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Jaffna
  • 2 mm    - Colombo

21st – 31st July:
  • 4 mm  - Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Moneragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Badulla
  • 2 mm  - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, Matara, Galle

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 3rd – 9th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
  • 65 mm - Southern, North central, Central
  • 35 mm - Uva, Eastern, North western
  • 25 mm - Northern
From 10th – 16th August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 85 mm - Southern, North Central
  • 75 mm - North Western, Central
  • 65 mm - Northern, Uva, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be neutral the rainfall during 6th – 16th August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 28, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in late July and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.