Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (27 August 2021)

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern & Western provinces during 27th - 31st August

  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Northern & North Central provinces with max of 142.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 22nd August

  • From 17th- 23rd August: up to  10 km/h from the South westerly were experienced over the island.

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 25^th – 31^st August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 85 mm - Southern
• 75 mm - Central
• 65 mm - Uva
• 55 mm - North Western
• 45 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Northern
• 25 mm - North Central

From 1^st – 7^st September: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Southern, Western
• 45 mm - Central
• 35 mm - Northern, Uva
• 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
• 15 mm - North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 25^th August – 8^th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: August 18, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.