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Friday, August 27, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (27 August 2021)


Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern & Western provinces during 27th - 31st August
  • Heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Northern & North Central provinces with max of 142.5 mm in Mullaitivu district on 22nd August
  • From 17th- 23rd August: up to  10 km/h from the South westerly were experienced over the island.
  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 25th – 31st August: 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 95 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 85 mm - Southern
  • 75 mm - Central
  • 65 mm - Uva
  • 55 mm - North Western
  • 45 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - North Central
From 1st – 7st September: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
  • 55 mm - Southern, Western
  • 45 mm - Central
  • 35 mm - Northern, Uva
  • 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
  • 15 mm - North Central
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 25th August – 8th September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 18, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

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