Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (20 August 2021)

Highlights          

                   

  • Fairly heavy rainfalls are predicted in Western, Sabaragamuwa & Central provinces during 18th - 24th  August.

  • Very heavy rainfalls were experienced in the Central province with max of 152.9 mm in Kandy district on 12th August.

  • From 10th- 16th August: up to  10-15 km/h Westerly & South westerly winds were experienced over the island

  • Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 18^th – 24^th August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 65 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Central
• 45 mm - Uva, Eastern, Northern, Southern
• 35 mm - North Central
• 25 mm - North Western

From 25^th – 31^st August: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 45 mm - Southern, Central
• 35 mm - Northern, Uva
• 25 mm - Eastern
• 15 mm - North Central, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active thus, slightly enhanced rainfall during 17^th – 31^st August. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: August 11, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in mid-August and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ around all of Sri Lanka.