Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 23rd Feb – 1st Mar.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Katunayake and Pottuvil with max of 119.1 mm in Katunayake on 18th Feb

 • From 24th Feb - 2nd Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal to the Southern while neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd February – 1^st March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - North Central, Uva
• 45 mm - Northern, Southern
• 35 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western, 
• 25 mm - North Western

From 2^nd – 8^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 65 mm - Northern, North Central
• 35 mm - Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central, Western, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 23^rd February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 23^rd – 27^th February; neutral during 28^th February – 4^th March and slightly suppressed the rainfall during 5^th – 9^th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 16, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal to the Southern while neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Northern half and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (23^rd February – 1^st March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western and Southern province during 25^th February – 5^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 23^rd February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 23^rd – 27^th February; neutral during 28^th February – 4^th March and slightly suppressed the rainfall during 5^th – 9^th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern,North Central, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 18th Feb – 22nd Feb .

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern,Sabaragamuwa and Western province with max of 186.3 mm in Trincomalee on 12th Feb.

 • From 1st Feb - 7th Feb, up to 4 m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 22^nd February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 35 mm - Northern, Eastern
• 25 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 15 mm - Central, Western

From 23^rd February – 1^st March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 55 mm - Northern, Eastern
• 45 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central, Western
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 16^th February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16^th – 25^th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26^th February – 2^nd March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 9, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (18^th – 22^nd February) moderate rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern province during 18^th – 26^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 16^th February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16^th – 25^th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26^th February – 2^nd March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (11 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Southern, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces from 12th Feb – 15th Feb

 • Fairly heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 65.4 mm in Ratnapura on 5th Feb but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

 • From 1st Feb - 8th Feb, up to 50 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced in the sea area surrounding the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northwestern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 9^th – 15^th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 75 mm - Uva 
• 65 mm - Central, North Central
• 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
• 45 mm - North Western, Northern

From 16^th – 22^nd February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 35 mm - Eastern, Northern
• 25 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva, Western 
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 9^th February – 23^rd February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 2, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-June 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Northwestern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (12^th February – 15^th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, Central, North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western province during 12^th February – 19^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 9^th February – 23^rd February giving significantly enhanced rainfall to the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 February 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 5th Feb – 8th Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr - this is the driest period in SL.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 116.6 mm in Ratnapura on 26th Jan but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

 • From 24th Jan - 31st Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Download full report ↓

---

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 2^nd – 8^th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - North Central, Uva 
• 35 mm - Northern, Southern
• 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 15 mm - North Western

From 9^th – 15^th February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Northern, North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
•  5 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 2^nd - 11^th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12^st – 16^th February. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 26, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-January. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-June 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C below neutral in some parts of the Eastern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Western provinces and neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (5^th February – 8^th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 5^th February – 11^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 2^nd - 11^th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12^st – 16^th February. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.