Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 February 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 5th Feb – 8th Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr - this is the driest period in SL.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 116.6 mm in Ratnapura on 26th Jan but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.

 • From 24th Jan - 31st Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 2^nd – 8^th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - North Central, Uva 
• 35 mm - Northern, Southern
• 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 15 mm - North Western

From 9^th – 15^th February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - Northern, North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Central
• 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
•  5 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 2^nd - 11^th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12^st – 16^th February. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 26, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-January. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-June 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C below neutral in some parts of the Eastern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Western provinces and neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (5^th February – 8^th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 5^th February – 11^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 2^nd - 11^th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12^st – 16^th February. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.