Phone:(+94)81-2376746,4922992   E-mail:climate@sltnet.lk     Website: http://www.climate.lk

Friday, February 4, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (4 February 2022)


Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 5th Feb – 8th Feb and dry elsewhere. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr - this is the driest period in SL.
 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Sabaragamuwa province with max of 116.6 mm in Ratnapura on 26th Jan but it was mostly dry on other days and in other places.
 • From 24th Jan - 31st Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 2nd – 8th February 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 85 mm - Eastern
  • 45 mm - North Central, Uva 
  • 35 mm - Northern, Southern
  • 25 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western
  • 15 mm - North Western
From 9th – 15th February
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 75 mm - Eastern
  • 35 mm - Northern, North Central, Uva
  • 25 mm - Central
  • 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western
  •  5 mm - North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active from 2nd - 11th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12st – 16th February. 


Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: January 26, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in late-January. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-June 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal in the Northern and Southern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 


Interpretation


Monitoring
Rainfall: 
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa. 
Wind: 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 
Temperature: 
The temperature anomalies were 10C – 30C below neutral in some parts of the Eastern, North Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Western provinces and neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions
Rainfall:
During the next week (5th February – 8th February) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province. 
Temperature:
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 5th February – 11th February
Teleconnections:
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active from 2nd - 11th February giving slightly enhanced rainfall to the entire island and shall be neutral during 12st – 16th February. 
Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka. 

2 comments:

  1. Best Hacking Techniques Your Searches Ends Here. This Is The Only Place Where Your Requirement Meets Our Skills. You Can Hire Our Hackers For Hire.

    Hire A Hacker Now...
    Hire A Hacker Now...
    Contacting Elite Hackers Team with over 15 years experience in the field of

    ReplyDelete
  2. Global Hackers Team offer the cell phone monitoring service. Have a peek on I need a hacker urgently

    ReplyDelete