Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern,North Central, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 18th Feb – 22nd Feb .

 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern,Sabaragamuwa and Western province with max of 186.3 mm in Trincomalee on 12th Feb.

 • From 1st Feb - 7th Feb, up to 4 m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 16^th – 22^nd February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 35 mm - Northern, Eastern
• 25 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 15 mm - Central, Western

From 23^rd February – 1^st March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 55 mm - Northern, Eastern
• 45 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central, Western
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 16^th February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16^th – 25^th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26^th February – 2^nd March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 9, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (18^th – 22^nd February) moderate rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern province during 18^th – 26^th February. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 16^th February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16^th – 25^th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26^th February – 2^nd March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.