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Friday, February 18, 2022

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (18 February 2022)




 • Moderate rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern,North Central, Southern and Sabaragamuwa provinces from 18th Feb – 22nd Feb .
 • Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern,Sabaragamuwa and Western province with max of 186.3 mm in Trincomalee on 12th Feb.
 • From 1st Feb - 7th Feb, up to 4 m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.
 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.



14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 16th – 22nd February 
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 35 mm - Northern, Eastern
  • 25 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern
  • 15 mm - Central, Western
From 23rd February – 1st March
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 55 mm - Northern, Eastern
  • 45 mm - North Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central, Western
  • 35 mm - Uva
  • 25 mm - North Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall be active from 16th February – 2nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16th – 25th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26th February – 2nd March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: February 9, 2022 
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in early-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal around the island, except for the Northwest.


During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and Western. 
Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 
The temperature anomalies were neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

During the next week (18th – 22nd February) moderate rainfall is predicted for Northern, Eastern, North Central, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces.
The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Southern province during 18th – 26th February
La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
MJO shall be active from 16th February – 2nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 16th – 25th February and slightly enhanced the rainfall during 26th February – 2nd March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 
The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island. 

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