Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (25 February 2022)

 

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces from 23rd Feb – 1st Mar.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Katunayake and Pottuvil with max of 119.1 mm in Katunayake on 18th Feb

 • From 24th Feb - 2nd Mar, up to 8m/s Northeasterlies were experienced over the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above normal to the Southern while neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd February – 1^st March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - North Central, Uva
• 45 mm - Northern, Southern
• 35 mm - Central, Sabaragamuwa, Western, 
• 25 mm - North Western

From 2^nd – 8^th March: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 65 mm - Northern, North Central
• 35 mm - Uva, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central, Western, North Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active from 23^rd February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 23^rd – 27^th February; neutral during 28^th February – 4^th March and slightly suppressed the rainfall during 5^th – 9^th March for the entire island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 16, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean in mid-February. A large majority of the models indicate La Niña to prevail (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through Northern Hemisphere spring 2022. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in May-July 2022.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above normal to the Southern while neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern and Western. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area surrounding the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were below normal for the Northern half and near-neutral for the rest of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (23^rd February – 1^st March) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, North Central and Uva provinces. 

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the Western, North Western and Southern province during 25^th February – 5^th March. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is prevailing (with Negative Indian Ocean Dipole) through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active from 23^rd February – 2^nd March, giving significantly enhanced rainfall from 23^rd – 27^th February; neutral during 28^th February – 4^th March and slightly suppressed the rainfall during 5^th – 9^th March for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May season shows above-normal precipitation for the Northern and neutral the rest of the Island.